Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a touchdown pass to wide receiver Stefon Diggs … [+]
The Monday Night Football feature is generating more watch and wager interest as the first place Buffalo Bills (3-2) tackle the New York Jets (2-3) in a key AFC East game. The Week 6 schedule was a good one for public bettors, as NFL favorites went 12-1 straight up and 10-2-1 against the spread (ATS).
Betting favorites went 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS the prior Week 5, so the top online sportsbooks have taken a hit the past two weeks. But money has been coming in on the underdog Jets on Sunday and Monday dropping the betting line from Jets -2.5 to -1.5 and -1.
Scoring was up again Sunday, Oct. 13 following the high-scoring Thursday night win by the 49ers at Seattle, 36-24. A season-high 49.7 points per game was averaged over the 13 Week 6 contests. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored 51 points in smashing the Saints. The Bucs rushed for 277 yards and Baker Mayfield passed for a week-high 325 yards and 4 touchdowns to become just the fourth team in NFL history to both run and pass for at least 250 yards in a NFL game. Undrafted 2nd year RB Sean Tucker made the most of his first extended playing time for the Buccaneers rushing for a week-high 136 yards and 1 touchdown on just 14 carries.
Monday Night Football Odds
Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Listed point spreads on favorites and over/under game totals.
- Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at New York Jets, 40.5 points
- How to watch: ESPN, 8:15 pm ET
The betting line has dipped down from Bills -2.5 favorite to -1.5 and even -1 at other leading online sportsbooks. The over/under game total has also dipped down to 40.5 with some injury concerns, low 50’s temperatures and winds near 15 mpg and gusts above 20 mph in the forecast.
Bills-Jets Player Props
Running backs Breece Hall (-105) of the Jets and James Cook (+115) of the Bills are favorites to score a touchdown during the game. Bills QB Josh Allen (+155) and Jets WR Garrett Wilson (+180) are also popular picks to hit paydirt for bettors during this big AFC East showcase on Monday Night Football.
After cashing in on the Week 5 Monday Night Football player prop with Saints RB Alvin Kamara receiving yards, and also two player props on Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb in Week 6, we’ve added another running back prop pick below along with key players popular props.
- BUF QB Josh Allen passing yards: Over/Under 197.5, rushing 34.5
- NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers passing yards: O/U 213.5
- BUF RB James Cook rushing yards: O/U 56.5
- NYJ RB Breece Hall rushing yards: O/U 57.5,
- BUF TE Tyler Conklin receiving yards: O/U 29.5
- NYJ RB Breece Hall receiving yards: O/U 25.5 – Bet Over
- NYJ WR Garrett Wilson receiving yards: O/U 60.5
- NYJ WR Allen Lazard receiving yards: O/U 35.5
Sharp Football Analysis provided additional advanced stats and notes on the Bills-Jets matchup with information you can bet on.
- Buffalo has averaged 1.3 points per drive over the past two weeks (27th) after averaging a league-high 3.5 points per drive in Weeks 1-3.
- The Jets allow 1.39 points per drive, which is 4th in the league.
- The Jets are allowing a league-low 4.3 yards per passing play.
- The Bills allow 5.3 yards per passing play, 6th in the league.
The Bills have been held to just 276 yards offense at 4.7 yards per play against the Texans and 236 yards at 4.1 yards per play against the Ravens in their last two games losing on the road. Last week QB Josh Allen completed just 9 pases in 30 attempts without WR Khalil Shakir (ankle), who is questionable to play Monday vs. the Jets and a game-time decision. Shakier was leading the NFL in Expected Points Added (EPA) per target ahead of Week 5 action and a very efficient top target for Allen as the slot receiver.
New York lost last Sunday in London 23-17 but held the undefeated Vikings to 253 yards at 3.8 yards per play. They also somehow lost 10-9 at home in Week 4 to the Broncos despite holding Denver’s offense to 183 yards at 3.3 yards per play. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers averaged just 3.9 yards per pass play in those two contests. The Jets 4.5 yards per play offense ranks No. 29 in the league.
The Vikings and Broncos are top-3 in the league in blitz rate. But the Bills have the second-highest standard pass rush rate. Hurting the Bills cause further is edge rusher Von Miller remains out (suspended) and interior DT Ed Oliver (hamstring) will miss another game.
Jets RB Breece Hall had a 24% target share in the first two weeks to lead all NFL running backs. The last three weeks the Jets faced three of the top six teams in blitz rate, and Hall was more involved in pass blocking. The Bills defense is surrending .44 EPA per target to NFL running backs (29th) and have struggled defending running backs out of the backfield going back to last season with top LB Matt Milano out of the lineup.
Respected sports handicapper Bob Stoll, an advanced model statistics guru at Dr. Bob Sports, provided additional stats and notes on the Bills-Jets matchup with information you can bet on.
- Defensive coordinator and new interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich named passing coordinator and QB coach Todd Downing the new offensive coordinator in hopes to jump start the offense with more creative play calling. New York averaging just 4.5 yards per play.
- Buffalo’s defense will likely have nickelback Taron Johnson back on the field. Backup Cam Lewis is surrendering 2.06 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 21st out of 22 qualifying nickelbacks. Johnson allowed only 0.74 yards per cover snap in the slot last season (4th) and is a massive upgrade over Lewis.
- The Bills are surrendering a league-high 5.2 yards per carry, but they should improve as they got back starting LB Terrel Bernard last week after he missed two games and Taron Johnson had 17 run stops last season ranked 2nd among nickelbacks.
- Aaron Rodgers will need to get the screen game going as RB Breece Hall has a 43% receiving success rate (2nd) and Buffalo’s defense is surrendering 0.44 EPA/target to opposing running backs (29th).
- Josh Allen has a yards per attempt versus single-high coverages only 82% of his yards per attempt against two-high and he could struggle as New York’s defense has a 52% single-high coverage rate (7th-highest).
- Jets cornerback DJ Reed is allowing just 0.32 yards per cover snap (3rd) and he will shut down WR Keon Coleman, whose 3 deep receptions rank 11th.
- New York’s interior pass rush is dangerous with Pro Bowl Quinnen Williams next to Javon Kinlaw, who ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency. The duo will wreak havoc across from Buffalo center Connor McGovern, who ranks 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
This is a huge divisional game with the current standings, head-to-head play and schedules ahead. The Bills have a more favorable schedule the next month and favorites in all four games against Tennessee, at Seattle, home vs. Indianapolis before a much anticipated rematch at home vs. the Kansas City Chiefs on Nov. 17. The Jets travel to Pittsburgh and New England, home to tackle the Houston Texans and back on the road to Arizona and home vs. Indianapolis. Both the Bills and Jets have a bye in Week 12.
More NFL betting news, picks, props and information you can bet on as the betting odds and futures adjust following each week’s game.
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