Penn State football playoff prediction | Penn State Football News

Penn State took care of business with a 35-6 White Out win over Washington on Saturday night, but other top teams didn’t fare as well.

A pair of top-five squads went down, and other teams in the playoff race sustained losses, leading to some shuffling in the College Football Playoff picture.

Here’s where things stand after another action-packed weekend of college football.

Conference autobids

After being dead-even last week, Oregon pulled away as a slight betting favorite to win the Big Ten. If the Ducks can avoid an upset the rest of the way, they’d finish at 13-0, locking up the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs.

After Georgia’s embarrassing loss to Ole Miss, the Bulldogs are no longer the favorite to represent the SEC. Texas is now the heavy favorite to win the conference and earn the No. 2 seed, despite previously losing to Georgia 30-15. After picking up their second loss, the Bulldogs have the sixth-best odds to win the SEC and will need other teams to lose just to make the championship game.

The ACC champion is positioned to grab the third seed in the bracket. Despite a loss to unranked Georgia Tech, Miami still remains the favorite to win the ACC at 12-1 and slot in at No. 3 overall. SMU and Clemson are also in the mix, but as it’s been for most of the season, the Hurricanes are the team to beat.

From the Big 12, BYU still sits as the favorite to win the conference after squeaking past unranked Utah in “The Holy War” on Saturday. Though they slotted at No. 9 in the initial College Football Playoff Rankings last week and will likely remain in that range, they’d get the No. 4 seed due to winning the conference.

First-round hosts

In the next tier, the Big Ten is expected to have a heavy influence. If Ohio State falls in a rematch to Oregon in the Big Ten title game, which is the most likely scenario assuming the Buckeyes beat Indiana in two weeks, they’d be in the mix for the No. 5 seed.

The committee has previously stated teams won’t be “unduly punished” for losing a conference championship game, meaning it would be hard for Indiana or Penn State to pass Ohio State even if the Buckeyes lose to Oregon again.

The Buckeyes are favorites over the Hoosiers and would hold head-to-head wins over them and the Nittany Lions, creating a ceiling of No. 6 for Penn State and Indiana.

Since the Nittany Lions face a tougher strength of schedule, they’d likely get the nod over the Hoosiers for No. 6, though Indiana’s performance against Ohio State will play a role.

Additionally, Texas A&M and Tennessee are the frontrunners to face Texas in the SEC championship, though the Aggies will face the Longhorns in the regular season and Tennessee has a tough test remaining against Georgia.

Texas A&M has a slightly better chance to make the SEC championship before losing to the Longhorns, likely locking in a No. 7 seed, behind Penn State but ahead of No. 8 Indiana.

First-round road trips

Teams on the bubble of the playoff include Georgia, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Alabama, SMU, Ole Miss and Boise State, and all have interesting cases.

It’ll likely come down to splitting hairs, but Tennessee is a 10-point underdog against Georgia, which would be its second loss. A key win over Alabama may keep the Volunteers in the picture, though.

Georgia now has its second loss but should win out and finish 10-2. With a win over Texas and potentially over Tennessee, it’d be hard to boot the Bulldogs from the bracket.

Notre Dame sits at 8-1 and is favored to win out, but has a weaker strength of schedule, which was reflected in the first College Football Playoff Rankings with a No. 10 spot. Wins in the last three games likely won’t do much to move the needle, and the Fighting Irish won’t have the opportunity to play in a conference championship as an independent team.

Alabama already has two losses, but has key wins over Georgia and LSU, and is favored in its remaining three games. It would be hard to see the committee leaving out the Crimson Tide, unless they stumble along the way and pick up a third loss.

SMU is 8-1 and clearly doesn’t have the respect of the committee with a No. 13 ranking. But with three more wins in the regular season and a close loss to Miami in the ACC title game, the Mustangs could play their way into a No. 10 or No. 11 seed.

Ole Miss was ranked No. 16 by the playoff committee last week, but a win over Georgia should change that. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rebels in the top 10 this week, and remaining games against Florida and Mississippi State should be easy victories. A 10-2 Ole Miss squad from a good conference with a win over Georgia and two losses by three points each would likely earn a nod into the postseason near the bottom of the bracket.

The Group of Five conferences are guaranteed one autobid into the dance, and Boise State remains the heavy favorite to lock down that spot. The Broncos were ranked No. 12 last week, and the only other G5 school in the rankings was Army at No. 25, though the Black Knights can either rise or drop significantly depending on their matchup against Notre Dame.

The Broncos won again on Saturday, and their only loss remains a 37-34 defeat against No. 1 Oregon. If they can run the table and finish 12-1, they’re a virtual lock to take the No. 12 seed, if not higher.

Most likely scenario:

Based on the current landscape and last week’s College Football Playoff Rankings, a likely scenario involves Penn State earning the No. 6 seed and hosting No. 11 Tennessee for their first meeting since 2007 and first ever at Beaver Stadium. The winner would earn the right to face No. 3 Miami in the semifinals.

1. Oregon

2. Texas

3. Miami

4. BYU

5. Ohio State

6. Penn State

7. Texas A&M

8. Indiana

9. Notre Dame

10. Georgia

11. Tennessee

12. Boise State

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