Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket for conference championship week

The fifth College Football Playoff rankings of 2024 will be announced tonight, Tuesday, Nov. 30, and things are bound to change after seven ranked teams lost last weekend. Before the CFP committee unveils the next rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will land, along with the bracket.

Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee’s official protocols here.

2024 College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Fifth Top 25 projections

These predictions are as of Sunday, Dec. 1. 

1. Oregon (12-0) LW: 1 — Oregon will be ranked No. 1 as long as it’s undefeated.
2. Texas (11-1) LW: 3 — Texas won its long-awaited rivalry game with Texas A&M, adding a quality win to its resume as it moves up to No. 2
3. Penn State (11-1) LW: 4 — Penn State moves up in this week’s rankings after Ohio State’s loss.
4. Notre Dame (11-1) LW: 5 — Notre Dame escaped USC and will likely host a game in the first round of the playoff, potentially rising to the No. 5 seed when it’s all said and done.
5. Georgia (10-2) LW: 7 — A win is a win in the committee’s eyes this week. Georgia moves up thanks to winning its close game in a week where Miami and Ohio State lost.
6. Tennessee (10-2) LW: 8 — Tennessee assured its spot in the playoff with a win over Vanderbilt. The Volunteers will be in a great position to host a playoff game.
7. Ohio State (10-2) LW: 2 — Ohio State will still be in the playoffs even with its second loss because of wins over Penn State and Indiana. Those wins keep the Buckeyes over a pair of one-loss teams.
8. SMU (11-1) LW: 9 — SMU defeated Cal to enter the ACC championship with just one loss.
9. Indiana (11-1) LW: 10 — Indiana stays behind SMU after a win over a one-win Purdue team.
10. Boise State (11-1) LW: 11 — Boise State handled business against Oregon State and will rise into the top 10.
11. South Carolina (9-3) LW: 15 — The order of the rankings from No. 12-14 will be the cause for plenty of debate. South Carolina beat a Clemson team ranked No. 12 last week, while other three-loss SEC teams beat unranked opponents. However, teams like Alabama and Ole Miss defeated the Gamecocks head-to-head. True as that may be, the committee already showed that head-to-head isn’t the end-all factor when the Tide, Rebels, Bulldogs and Vols were all in the top 10 a few weeks ago. The Clemson win pushes the Gamecocks into the playoffs.
12. Alabama (9-3) LW: 13 — Alabama will be the first team out this week at No. 12 since it’s ranked higher than any Big 12 team. The Tide will need one team to falter to help it make the playoff.
13. Ole Miss (9-3) LW: 14 — Ole Miss will be ranked 14th by the committee and require conference championship game blowouts to make the playoff.
14. Miami (FL) (10-2) LW: 6 — Miami lost its second game of the season to Syracuse. The Hurricanes have fewer losses than teams ranked above it, but Miami hasn’t defeated a currently ranked team. The loss to Syracuse knocked Miami from the ACC championship game and the playoff picture.
15. Arizona State (10-2) LW: 16 — Arizona State dominated Arizona with a spot in the Big 12 championship game on the line. The Sun Devils are just one more win away from a playoff spot.
16. Iowa State (10-2) LW: 18 — Iowa State won Farmeggedon, holding off Kansas State. The Cyclones can clinch a playoff spot with a win next week.
17. BYU (10-2) LW: 19 — BYU finishes the regular season with 10 wins but is out of the playoff picture since it won’t play in the Big 12 title game.
18. Clemson (9-3) LW: 12 — Clemson’s hopes of making the playoff as an at-large team died with a loss to South Carolina, but its hopes of making the playoff revived when Miami’s loss sent it to the ACC Championship Game. Nonetheless, expect Clemson to land outside the top 15 this week.
19. Missouri (9-3) LW: 21 — Missouri rallied past Arkansas and will move inside the top 20 this week.
20. UNLV (10-2) LW: 22 — UNLV took down Nevada and will enter the top 20 ahead of a CFP elimination game in the Mountain West title game.
21. Syracuse (9-3) LW: NR — At 9-3 with a win over a then-top-10 team, Syracuse will enter the rankings this week.
22. Illinois (9-3) LW: 23 — Illinois defeated Northwestern and will remain ranked this week.
23. Colorado (9-3) LW: 25 — Colorado moves up after a 52-0 win on Black Friday. Unfortunately, the Buffaloes saw their playoff hopes disappear last week in a loss.
24. Texas A&M (8-4) LW: 20 — Texas A&M lost to Texas, but the committee will keep the Aggies ranked since Texas is a top-two team.
25. Army (10-1) LW: NR — I have no idea who the committee will rank in the final spot, but I’ll go with Army since the Black Knights are 10-1 and bounced back from their first loss with a win.

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

What the bracket could look like

First Teams Out: No. 12 Alabama, No. 13 Ole Miss, No. 14 Miami

Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

How far does Ohio State fall?

Ohio State lost to an unranked Michigan, but it still has wins over two top-10 teams. The playoff committee already had a pair of two-loss teams ranked above one-loss teams last week. Could a third two-loss team in Ohio State continue the trend?

LAST WEEK’S RECAP: Michigan stuns No. 2 Ohio State, Georgia wins in 8OT, more from Rivalry Week

Where are the three-loss SEC teams in comparison to Miami?

Miami is the other top-10 team to suffer its second loss this week. However, the Hurricanes don’t have nearly the quality wins of a team like Ohio State. Miami likely will fall below a one-loss Boise State team putting it out of the top 10. The next teams outside of the top 10 are all three-loss teams based on last week’s rankings. When comparing resumes, how much the committee will weigh a third loss will determine where Miami lands compared to South Carolina, Alabama and Ole Miss.

Is a win over Clemson enough to move South Carolina past teams it lost to?

South Carolina lost to LSU in a controversial 36-33 finish, lost to Ole Miss in a 27-3 rout and lost to Alabama 27-25 in a close one. That’s two losses to two teams ranked right in front of the Gamecocks. However, South Carolina was the only team to beat a ranked team this week. Will that be enough to make the Gamecocks the last team in?