The 4-2 Michigan Wolverines are barely hanging on in the AP Top 25 after their 27-17 loss to the Washington Huskies last Saturday, dropping from No. 10 in the nation to No. 24.
Michigan currently has a bye week and a chance to reset and hone in on all the areas they’ve struggled through six games.
Michigan ranks low in most metrics offensive and defensively with the exceptions being their running game and pass rush, which are still both formidable. They’ve struggled about everywhere else including quarterback, receiver, offensive line, and secondary.
For these reasons, Michigan continues to sink in projections and betting odds alike.
Michigan has won the Big Ten Championship three years in a row but that streak is presently in jeopardy. Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Michigan has the fifth-best odds of winning the Big Ten at +5500. The four teams ahead of Michigan are Indiana (+2000), Penn State (+450), Oregon (+230), and Ohio State (-115).
Per ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index), Michigan has just a 0.6 percent chance of winning the Big Ten this year. To make matters more difficult for the Wolverines rank No. 14 in the nation in remaining strength of schedule, including four ranked teams and three teams that are currently undefeated. Here’s a look at Michigan’s remaining schedule and the FPI projections for each matchup.
Oct. 19 | at No. 23 Illinois (4-1): 55.6% chance Michigan wins
Oct. 26 | vs. Michigan State (3-3): 75.2% chance Michigan wins
Nov. 2 | vs. No. 2 Oregon (5-0): 67.1% chance Oregon wins
Nov. 9 | at No. 18 Indiana (6-0): 72.9% chance Indiana wins
Nov. 23 | vs. Northwestern (2-3): 86.3% chance Michigan wins
Nov. 30 | at No. 2 Ohio State (5-0): 92.4% chance Ohio State wins
If these FPI percentages prove to be correct, Michigan would finish the regular season at 7-5. The 55.6 percent chance of Illinois beating Michigan is in the danger zone as well, and the floor of the season looks to be in the six to seven-win range. However, games aren’t played on computers and Michigan could get better and make these projections look foolish.
Beating Illinois after the bye is beyond imperative. Michigan may have two losses this year but they only have one conference loss. If Jack Tuttle, who was inserted against Washington and will start against the Fighting Illini, becomes a difference-maker at quarterback it could drastically change the above percentages and the ceiling of Michigan’s season. They haven’t been eliminated from playoff contention yet, nor have they been eliminated from a potential birth in the Big Ten Championship Game, and they’re going to have to play like their livelihoods are on the line.
What happens here forth for the Wolverines will either be an immense and immediate turnaround that becomes one of the biggest stories of the college football season, or it’ll be a 2024 season that ends with loads of negative outside noise about the program. Michigan’s destiny is still in their hands until other teams take it away from them. While the team cannot be collectively counted on through six games, they shouldn’t be counted out in their remaining six games, either. This is college football and anything can happen — Vanderbilt beating Alabama is a great example of what our friend John U. Bacon often says, “nobody knows anything.”
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