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  • College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State – prediction, odds, expert picks, QBs, betting trends, and stats

    College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State – prediction, odds, expert picks, QBs, betting trends, and stats

    Outside of a 18-15 Week 3 loss to a 10-2 BYU team, SMU (11-2) ran through their 60th ranked ACC schedule to go undefeated in conference play during their maiden Power Four campaign. A 28-27 victory over @Duke (9-3) carried the lowest win expectancy of SMU’s wins at 74%, which showcases the dominant nature of the Mustangs’ success. Their offense ranks 4th nationally in SP+ with their lethal pass attack placing 11th nationally in EPA/dropback and 9th in yards per successful dropback (17.7). The SMU rushing attack is clearly the weakest unit on the team, ranking 73rd in rush success rate and 118th in YAC (2.15). It couldn’t be any different on the defensive side, as their defensive front is holding opponents to 7.4 yards per successful rush (3rd in FBS) and an outstanding .75 yards before contact allowed (9th). The SMU secondary is also a sound unit that ranks 10th in pass success rate and 16th in QBR allowed.

    The Nittany Lions (11-2) cruised through the first half with their closest victory being a thrilling Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC with PSU recording an 86%-win expectancy. Outside of that game, each of their other 10 victories carried near perfect 94%+ win expectations with Penn State demonstrating a comprehensive mastery of their B10 regular season schedule, aside from OSU of course. OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks 2nd in success rate, 5th in EPA/play and 2nd in marginal efficiency. There are flaws though as PSU’s offense lacks big play ability, ranking a dismal 92nd in yards per successful play and 63rd in yards per successful rush. The Nittany Lions Defense has been elite once again, ranking 7th in SP+ with their topflight secondary allowing just 5.2 yards per dropback (14th). Projected Top 10 2025 NFL Draft selection Abdul Carter leads a pass rush that ranks 25th overall with a 7.8% sack rate and 9th with a 42.3% pressure rate.

    NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

    Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!

    Game Details and How to watch the 2024 College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State

    · Date: Saturday, December 21, 2024
    · Time: 12:00 PM EST
    · Site: Beaver Stadium
    · City: University Park, PA
    · TV/Streaming: TNT/Max

    Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

    Game odds for SMU at Penn State

    • Moneyline: Penn State (-350), SMU (+270)
    • Spread: Penn State -8.5
    • Over/Under: 52.5 points

    The spread opened at Penn State -8 but has since inched up to -9 in some spots and could steam up to the key number of -10 by kickoff. PSU’s moneyline dropped at -298 and is up to a high of -350, while SMU has improved from +240 to +270. The game total opened at 52.5 but that has since spiked to a high of 54.

    NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

    NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
    “SMU’s defense has allowed 24+ points in 7 games this year and have scored 28+ in all but one contest. Both teams were involved in competitive Conference Championship games that easily cleared their game total Overs. SMU showed that they can play from behind against a strong defense like Clemson, which is the likely scenario against Penn State’s extremely efficient offense that ranks 2nd in success rate. I think these two offenses execute well enough to clear the 52.5 game total, and think it steadily continues to increase as the game draws closer.”

    Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

    Quarterback matchup for College Football Playoff – SMU at Penn State

    • Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar has been the unquestioned starter for the last two seasons after spending a one-year apprenticeship to Sean Clifford. Allar ranks 12th nationally with an 86th percentile PFF overall grade and has been exceptional navigating the pocket, rating 8th in FBS with a 71st% under-pressure grade. As a team, PSU ranks 2nd in passing success rate and is achieving first down yardage on 61.8% of their completions (6th). With Allar entering his third, and potentially final, season in Happy Valley, this may be Penn State’s best chance in the near future to secure a National Championship.
    • SMU: Heading into fall camp conventional wisdom had former four-star QB Preston Stone reprising his 2023 role as SMU’s starting quarterback. However, QB Kevin Jennings wowed the coaching staff in fall camp to the point that HC Rhett Lashlee committed to giving him reps in the season opener. That arrangement lasted three weeks until Jennings finally secured the starting job in their 18-15 loss to BYU. He went onto complete 66.1% of his throws for 3,072 yards, a 22-to-8 ratio and 8.8 yards per attempt which ranks 7th best among Power Four signal callers. He boasts advanced ability to escape the rush, as is evidenced by a 12.2% pressure-to-sack rate, and an 85.3 PFF passing grade.

    SMU at Penn State: Betting trends & recent stats

    • Star Penn State TE Tyler Warren ranks 1st among Power Four tight ends with 112 targets. Penn State Tight Ends have produced 19 receptions of 20+ yards this season, 2nd-most among FBS programs.
    • RB Nicholas Singleton has rushed for 10 or more yards on 19.8% of 131 carries this season, 7th-best among qualified Power Four running backs. SMU’s defense has allowed 10+ yards on just 7.7% of carries this season, best among ACC defenses.
    • Penn State is 1-6 (.143) against the spread when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, worst among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .432)
    • Penn State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 364 attempts this season, tied for 20th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.1% of attempts this season, best among ACC defenses.
    • Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 195 of 807 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2023 season, best among Power Conference programs.
    • Penn State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 3 of 679 attempts since the 2023 season, best in FBS.
    • SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of 72% in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams.
    • WR Roderick Daniels has committed 6 fumbles this season, most among Power Conference skill players
    • SMU has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 34 of 443 carries this season, 5th-best in FBS.
    • SMU’s offense has thrown for 3,471 passing yards in 13 games this season, 26th-best among FBS offenses. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 178.5 passing yards per game this season, 16th-best among FBS defenses.
    • SMU has allowed 106.5 yards from scrimmage per game to running backs this season, 4th-best among Power Conference Teams.
    • QB Kevin Jennings has completed 70% of passes (62 completions/89 net pass attempts) on 3rd down this season, 3rd-best among FBS Quarterbacks.

    BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

    “Oregon, Georgia and Texas are the favorites to win the College Football Playoff. We will be cheering for the chalk as all three of those teams are good results for the sportsbook.” – Cameron Drucker, Senior Trader, BetMGM

    Line movement (Open to Now)

    • Oregon +900 to +350
    • Texas +1000 to +350
    • Georgia +500 to +375
    • Ohio State +700 to +475

    Highest Ticket%

    • Ohio State 12.6%
    • Texas 10.7%
    • Georgia 9.6%

    Highest Handle%

    • Ohio State 15.9%
    • Alabama 13.1%
    • Georgia 13.0%

    Biggest Liabilities

    • Alabama
    • Colorado
    • Ohio State

    College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

    Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

    Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

    • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
    • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
    • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
    • Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
    • Eric Froton (@CFFroton)



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  • Athletes in $2.8 billion college lawsuit tell judge they want to create a players’ association

    Athletes in $2.8 billion college lawsuit tell judge they want to create a players’ association

    The athletes whose lawsuit against the NCAA is primed to pave the way for schools to pay them directly also want a players’ association to represent them in the complex contract negotiations that have overtaken the sport.

    Grant House, Sedona Prince and Nya Harrison wrote to the judge overseeing what’s known as the House settlement, saying that although they are generally happy with the terms of the proposed settlement “there still remains a critical need for structural changes to protect athletes and prevent the failures of the past.”

    That, they said, would be a players’ association, which they believe will help their voices be better heard as the NCAA and its schools move toward a system to share hundreds of millions in TV and ticket revenue with players.

    The players said an association would help standardize name-image-likeness (NIL) contracts to establish minimum payments and health protections “and to create an ecosystem where athletes can thrive.”

    “While professional leagues include athletes in these decisions through their respective players’ associations, the college system continues to prevent our players’ association from representing us at the decision-making tables,” the letter said.

    The settlement, with a price tag of $2.8 billion that will be distributed over the next 10 years to players both past and present, does not address whether athletes should be considered employees of the schools. That’s an issue the NCAA is asking Congress to prevent for fear the costs could wreck college sports.

    The NCAA did not immediately respond to a message from The Associated Press seeking comment Tuesday.

    Earlier this year, the head of the National College Players Association confirmed that a licensing organization that works with the NFL Players’ Association had emailed thousands of college football players, encouraging them to join the NCPA. Separately, the chairman of another group trying to organize college athletes, athletes.org, said it already had some 4,000 members. The players who wrote the letter said they wanted to work with athletes.org.

    A hearing to approve the settlement is set for April 7. The request could shape how U.S. Judge Claudia Wilken views the settlement’s long-term chances of succeeding, but plaintiffs’ attorney Jeffrey Kessler said the letter was an endorsement of the settlement and he doesn’t expect it to impact the agreement.

    “All three of these athletes fully support approval of the settlement but wanted to express their additional views that a players’ association is also desirable,” Kessler said. “I salute their devotion to these issues and their fellow college athletes.”

    Whether college athletes can ever be considered school employees is a thorny topic. There are multiple issues in front of the National Labor Relations Board, including a complaint against USC and the Pac-12; a unionization effort by the men’s basketball team at Dartmouth; an unfair labor complaint against Notre Dame; and a federal lawsuit in Pennsylvania filed by former Villanova football player Trey Johnson.

    All of it could lead to college athletes being granted employee status, though court battles are assured.

    ___

    Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

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  • College football rankings: Georgia moves to No. 2 in CBS Sports 134 after SEC championship win over Texas

    College football rankings: Georgia moves to No. 2 in CBS Sports 134 after SEC championship win over Texas

    uga-134.png
    CBS Sports Graphic

    We have now moved into the postseason schedule for the 2024 college football season where the rest of the calendar year and first month of 2025 will be filled with bowl games and the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Conference championship weekend marks the true conclusion to the season that was, as most of the 134 FBS teams have played their final game with the same combination of players and coaches that they carried for much of the fall. 

    That’s not to say that we here at CBS Sports are done ranking teams. No, we will circle back after the national championship game on Monday, Jan. 20 for one final edition of the CBS Sports 134, our comprehensive ranking of every FBS team. But this is the penultimate update — a snapshot of how our voters view the entire college football landscape as we transition into the season of the coaching carousel, transfer portal and bowl games. 

    With only 18 teams in action over conference championship weekend, you won’t find many huge swings in the rankings, but there is some notable shuffling in response to those nine results. Georgia took over Texas’ spot at No. 2 after downing the Longhorns in an overtime thriller in the SEC Championship Game, while teams like Penn State (down two spots to No. 5) and SMU (down four spots to No. 10) also dropped following conference title game losses. 

    There is still no change at the top thanks to Oregon proving itself against the Big Ten’s best yet again and finishing the season with a 13-0 record as the only undefeated team at the FBS level. With Saturday night’s win, the conference’s newest power became the first team in Big Ten history to defeat Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State in the same season.  

    College football experts from CBS Sports and 247Sports contribute ballots each week, which are averaged together for our rankings. You can see the top 25 below and 26-134 on our rankings page.
    1 Oregon 13-0 1
    2 Georgia 11-2 5
    3 Notre Dame 11-1 4
    4 Texas 11-2 2
    5 Penn State 11-2 3
    6 Ohio State 10-2 7
    7 Indiana 11-1 8
    8 Tennessee 10-2 9
    9 Boise State 12-1 10
    10 SMU 11-2 6
    11 Arizona State 11-2 11
    12 Alabama 9-3 12
    13 South Carolina 9-3 14
    14 Ole Miss 9-3 15
    15 Miami 10-2 13
    16 Clemson 10-3 17
    17 BYU 10-2 18
    18 Iowa State 10-3 16
    19 Army 11-1 23
    20 Colorado 9-3 20
    21 Illinois 9-3 21
    22 UNLV 10-3 19
    23 Syracuse 9-3 22
    24 Memphis 10-2 26
    25 Missouri 9-3 24

    Biggest movers 

    • No. 41 Marshall (+8): The Thundering Herd were underdogs heading down to Lafayette but played like favorites in an impressive 31-3 win against Louisiana. Marshall finished the year at 10-3, and though they are going through a coaching transition with Charles Huff off to Southern Miss and Tony Gibson taking over, the program seems to be in a good spot heading into 2025. 
    • No. 50 Jacksonville State (+7): An eight-game winning streak was snapped in the final week of the regular season with a 19-17 loss to WKU, but our voters were quick to jump back on board after seeing the Gamecocks thrash the Hilltoppers in the rematch. After being WKU 52-12 in the Conference USA title game, JSU is off to the Cure Bowl to face MAC champion Ohio. 
    • No. 42 Ohio (+5): Speaking of the Bobcats, Ohio also was a team that took a seemingly tight matchup and blew it open over conference championship weekend. Miami (OH) won the regular season meeting 30-20, but the Bobcats raced out to an early lead and never looked back in the conference title rematch, claiming the program’s first MAC title since 1968. 
    • No. 19 Army (+4): The Black Knights have carried an impressive win count all season but lacked for the high-end wins and finally got their best win of the season in the AAC title game by beating Tulane, a team our voters have inside the top 30. 
    • No. 22 UNLV (-3): This is just a small step back for UNLV after losing to top-10 Boise State. The Rebels finish the regular season with a 10-3 record and back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Mountain West, but they now move forward without Barry Odom, who accepted the head-coaching position at Purdue. 
    • No. 34 Louisiana (-3): Injuries at the quarterback position derailed what appeared to be a conference championship path for Louisiana, but the season has still be considered a success. The Ragin’ Cajuns went 10-3 with the only regular season conference defeat coming by two points to South Alabama, but a 31-3 final score in the Sun Belt title game is worth a slight adjustment in the rankings. 
    • No. 10 SMU (-4): Like the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, our voters were hesitant to install too much rankings punishment for the heartbreaking defeat in the ACC title game to Clemson. The Mustangs enter the CFP with an 11-2 record and a combined margin of defeat of just six points while also carrying the nation’s 11th best scoring margin, beating opponents by an average of 17.7 points per game.  
    • No. 78 Western Kentucky (-7): Last week’s rankings movement featured WKU moving up 18 spots after beating Jacksonville State in the final game of the regular season, so this adjustment from the voters taking some of that support back in the wake of a 40-point loss to that very same team in the Conference USA title game.  

    Check out the rest of the CBS Sports 134: Teams ranked 26-134



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  • Notre Dame vs. Indiana: Preview, how to watch the College Football Playoff first round game

    Notre Dame vs. Indiana: Preview, how to watch the College Football Playoff first round game

    9:04 pm, December 8, 2024

    No. 7 Notre Dame will host No. 10 Indiana in the first game of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. The game will be played on Friday, December 20 at Notre Dame Stadium.

    • WHEN: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 20
    • TV: ABC/ESPN
    • STREAMING: WatchESPN

    8:20 pm, December 8, 2024

    Notre Dame football

    The first game of the 12-team playoff is an in-state rivalry between two 11-1 teams as No. 7 Notre Dame will host No. 10 Indiana on Friday, December 20 at Notre Dame Stadium.

    Notre Dame enters the playoff on 10-game winning streak, including big wins over Army and Southern Cal in their last two games where the Irish combined for 98 points. Quarterback Riley Leonard has thrown just eight completions over the last two games, as ND prioritizes running the football. Running back Jerimiyah Love ranks near the top of the nation with 15 rushing touchdowns on the season.

    In the midst of the best season in program history, Indiana looks to keep the magic going behind first-year head coach Curt Cignetti. Transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke has led the Indiana football revolution, ranking top-10 in completion percentage and passing touchdowns. Indiana ranks second in the nation in scoring offense after a season-high 66 points in their last game.

    Notre Dame   Indiana
    11-1 Record 11-1
    Independent Conference Big Ten
    39.8 Points Per Game 43.3
    13.6 Points Against Per Game 14.7

    Jeremiyah Love (949 yds)

    		 Leading Rusher Justice Ellison (811yds)
    Beaux Collins (427 yds) Leading Receiver Elijah Sarratt (890 yds)
    Jack Kiser (64 tackles) Leading Tackler Aidan Fisher (108 tackles)

    8:12 pm, December 8, 2024

    The final College Football Playoff rankings of the season set the bracket for the 2024 College Football Playoff. Here is the full top-25:

    RANK SCHOOL RECORD PREVIOUS
    1 Oregon 13-0 1
    2 Georgia 11-2 5
    3 Texas 11-2 2
    4 Penn State 11-2 3
    5 Notre Dame 11-1 4
    6 Ohio State 10-2 6
    7 Tennessee 10-2 7
    8 Indiana 11-1 9
    9 Boise State 12-1 10
    10 SMU 11-2 8
    11 Alabama 9-3 11
    12 Arizona State 11-2 15
    13 Miami 10-2 12
    14 Ole Miss 9-3 13
    15 South Carolina 9-3 14
    16 Clemson 10-3 17
    17 BYU 10-2 18
    18 Iowa State 10-3 16
    19 Missouri 9-3 19
    20 Illinois 9-3 21
    21 Syracuse 9-3 22
    22 Army 11-1 24
    23 Colorado 9-3 23
    24 UNLV 10-3 20
    25 Memphis 10-2 25

    8:07 pm, December 8, 2024

    The 2024 College Football Playoff Bracket

    The winner of Notre Dame and Indiana will move on to face No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on January 1, 2025.

    8:00 pm, December 8, 2024

    Since the College Football Playoff was established in 2014, seven teams have won a national championship. Michigan won the last version of the four-team playoff in 2023.

    Here is every College Football Playoff Champion:

    SEASON CHAMPION SELECTING ORGANIZATION
    2023 Michigan CFP
    2022 Georgia CFP
    2021 Georgia CFP
    2020 Alabama CFP
    2019 LSU CFP
    2018 Clemson CFP
    2017 Alabama CFP
    2016 Clemson CFP
    2015 Alabama CFP
    2014 Ohio State CFP



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  • #9 Tennessee to head to Columbus to take on #8 Ohio State in first round of College Football Playoff | Local Sports

    #9 Tennessee to head to Columbus to take on #8 Ohio State in first round of College Football Playoff | Local Sports

    Following the second 10-win regular season in three years under head coach Josh Heupel, the seventh-ranked Tennessee Volunteers have officially punched their ticket to their first College Football Playoff.

    The ninth-seeded Volunteers will travel to take on eighth-seeded Ohio State at 8 p.m. ET in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 21 from Ohio Stadium. The game will be televised by ESPN and ABC.

    The first-round winner advances to take on top-seeded Oregon, the Big Ten champion, in the Rose Bowl Game on New Year’s Day in Pasadena, California. The CFP quarterfinal kicks off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN.

    Tennessee (10-2, 6-2 SEC) and Ohio State (10-2, 7-2 Big Ten) will meet for just the second time. The two teams faced each other in the 1996 Citrus Bowl, as MVP Jay Graham rushed for 154 yards, and Peyton Manning completed 20-of-35 passes and a touchdown to lift the Volunteers to a 20-14 win. It will be Tennessee’s first game in the state of Ohio.

    Ohio State finished fourth in the Big Ten this season with key victories over playoff participants Penn State and Indiana. The matchup will feature a battle of two of the top five total and scoring defenses in the country.

    The Buckeyes are first in the FBS, allowing only 10.9 points per game and 241.1 yards per contest. Meanwhile, Tennessee is fourth in the nation, issuing 13.9 points per game and fifth in the FBS allowing 278.3 yards per contest.

    Ranked No. 7, Tennessee earned the No. 9 seed since Group of Five automatic bid Boise State and Big 12 champion Arizona State received the Nos. 3 and No. 4 seeds, respectively. The Vols were one of three SEC teams to earn CFP berths, joining SEC champion No. 2 seed Georgia and No. 5 seed Texas.

    Tennessee leaned on the SEC’s top rushing attack, which put up 232.0 yards per game led by the spectacular play of junior running back Dylan Sampson. Sampson, USA Today Network’s SEC Player of the Year, shattered five school single-season records, rushing for 1,485 yards on 256 carries and 22 touchdowns.

    The Vols held 10 of their 12 opponents under 20 points thanks to a stifling defense that limited seven of their eight Power Four opponents under their season scoring average.

    The College Football Playoff berth is another significant accomplishment for Heupel’s Vols, who were 3-7 a year prior to his arrival.

    Four years into his tenure, Tennessee has won 37 games and 30 games since 2022, which is the fourth-most in the SEC during that span. It’s the winningest three-year stretch for the program since claiming 30 victories from 1998-2000.

    Preparations for the College Football Playoff are well underway. The Volunteers will practice next week, participate in graduation on Friday and then enter game week. All CFP first-round participants will treat the first round like a normal game week schedule and depart for their destination the day before the game.

    Final College Football Playoff Committee Rankings:

    1. Oregon (13-0)

    2. Georgia (11-2)

    3. Texas (11-2)

    4. Penn State (11-2)

    5. Notre Dame (11-1)

    6. Ohio State (10-2)

    7. Tennessee (10-2)

    8. Indiana (11-1)

    9. Boise State (12-1)

    10. SMU (11-2)

    11. Alabama (9-3)

    12. Arizona State (11-2)

    13. Miami (10-2)

    14. Ole Miss (9-3)

    15. South Carolina (9-3)

    16. Clemson (10-3)

    17. BYU (10-2)

    18. Iowa State (10-3)

    19. Missouri (9-3)

    20. Illinois (9-3)

    21. Syracuse (9-3)

    22. Army (11-1)

    23. Colorado (9-3)

    24. UNLV (10-3)

    25. Memphis (10-2)



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  • What we learned from the first 12-team College Football Playoff field: Snubs, surprises and lessons

    What we learned from the first 12-team College Football Playoff field: Snubs, surprises and lessons

    The College Football Playoff unveiled its first 12-team bracket on Sunday afternoon, ushering in with it a new era for the sport’s marquee postseason event.

    Big Ten champion Oregon earned the No. 1 overall seed, with SEC champion Georgia next as the No. 2 seed. Mountain West champion Boise State was the third-highest ranked conference champion, so the Broncos got the No. 3 seed, while Big 12 champion Arizona State landed at No. 4. The top four seeds — all conference champions, per Playoff protocol — will all receive byes into the quarterfinals.

    Texas was the top at-large team, checking in as the No. 5 seed, followed by Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State in that order. Seeds No. 5-8 will host first-round games on campus, so we’ll see games in Austin, State College, South Bend and Columbus.

    Tennessee, Indiana and SMU were the final at-large teams into the bracket, and ACC champion Clemson earned the No. 12 seed as the fifth conference champion. The CFP selection committee chose to keep SMU in the field after a three-point loss to Clemson in the ACC championship over a 9-3 Alabama team with three top-25 wins. That was the most controversial decision in the first year of the 12-team bracket.

    2024 Big Ten Football Championship - Penn State v Oregon

    The first 12-team bracket of the College Football Playoff era is set. See who’s in and who’s out.

    Here’s what else you need to know:

    The “snubs”

    Alabama fans are furious that SMU made the field without any wins against teams in the committee’s top 25. And while that is true, wins vs. the top 25 is not the only metric at the committee’s disposal, and the SMU-Alabama decision was about far more than simply these two individual teams. The selection committee had a decision to make about the future of conference championship games. In order to put an Alabama team into the field with a pair of losses to .500 teams (including a 24-3 loss to Oklahoma just two weeks ago), the committee would have to significantly penalize an 11-2 SMU team that played in the ACC championship — an extra game, while the Crimson Tide sat idle because they did not qualify for their league’s championship game. Obviously, the way SMU played Clemson factored into the final decision. The furious rally late to tie the game up in the final minute before the Tigers won on a 56-yard walk-off field goal surely impacted committee members. It was hard to watch that game and not believe that SMU was deserving of a spot in the Playoff.

    Alabama argued that its rigorous schedule offset its losses, and that its best performances (as evidenced in its three top-25 wins) proved it could beat anybody in the country. SMU argued that it lost in an additional game that teams it would be compared to weren’t required to play. Mustangs coach Rhett Lashlee also pointed out that SMU was undefeated in the regular season after deciding to start quarterback Kevin Jennings.

    But ultimately, I had no issue with the committee including SMU over Alabama in the final bracket. The Tide were extremely inconsistent this season, and they were particularly bad on the road. They only have themselves to blame for their own exclusion; they were a relative lock to make the field prior to that blowout loss to Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the committee made an important point by keeping SMU in the field even after a conference championship-game loss. This group wasn’t going to punish a team that had been so successful over the course of the regular season that it had to play an extra game while its peers sat at home. This selection committee wasn’t going to disincentive participation in league title games by eliminating SMU for playing in and losing its conference championship game.

    Had the committee bumped SMU out of the field after it ranked ahead of Indiana and Alabama (both idle) just five days ago, no coach would ever want to play in a conference championship game again. You’d have teams sitting starters and/or trying to throw games down the stretch to avoid it. And games that drive revenue for the leagues themselves would be devalued considerably. The committee’s choice of SMU was its support of the status quo.

    What message did committee send in final bracket?

    Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry discuss the biggest statements the committee made in its final bracket release, including why winning the conference matters and the maintenance of the status quo.

    The biggest surprises

    I had projected SMU over Alabama, so I wasn’t terribly surprised that the selection committee did the same. I also wasn’t shocked to see Boise State stay ahead of Arizona State — the Broncos were five spots ahead of the Sun Devils in the penultimate rankings, before both beat top-25 opponents over championship weekend — but it was pretty cool to see the Group of 5 champion ranked above two different Power 4 champions. I don’t think I would have ever thought, in my wildest dreams, that the Group of 5 champion would earn the No. 3 seed in the very first year of an expanded field. That’s huge for the legitimacy of G5 Playoff contenders moving forward.

    The most interesting ranking decision that the committee made was its ordering of seeds No. 5-7. The group put Texas at No. 5 after an overtime loss to Georgia (playing its backup quarterback for most of the second half) despite having no top-25 wins on its resume. I’d wondered how the committee would handle Texas suffering two losses to the same team, one coming in the (additional) conference championship game that other at-large teams would not be playing in. (Cough, Notre Dame. Cough, Ohio State.) The committee ultimately dropped Texas just one spot in its rankings, which allowed the Longhorns the highest seed available for an at-large team. This group liked Texas. It didn’t matter that they didn’t have a lot of meat on that schedule; the Longhorns had been ranked high the entire season despite teams (like Ohio State) below it with far better wins.

    Meanwhile, Penn State lost to No. 1 Oregon by eight points in a very fun, exhilarating Big Ten championship game. The Nittany Lions, like the Longhorns, only dropped one spot in the rankings due to their conference championship game loss. (Essentially, both teams were bumped by Georgia leapfrogging them up to the No. 2 seed line.) Penn State only had one top-25 win on its resume, but the committee also liked this team, even after it lost to two of the best teams in the country.

    Both Texas and Penn State stayed above 11-1 Notre Dame, which was an interesting choice by the committee. The Fighting Irish had been one of the nation’s most dominant teams all season long, but they also had the worst loss of any CFP contender and had just one top-25 win on its resume. Even though I could make a case to put the Irish ahead of Texas and/or Penn State because I think the Irish are a more dominant and consistent team, I can also see why the committee wanted to put the two teams with better losses ahead of the one with a loss to Northern Illinois. The committee was willing to forgive that loss but not forget it completely. And all three teams get to host first-round games, so all is ultimately well.

    Georgia, Texas have easiest paths forward in CFP

    Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry discuss which teams have the smoothest shot to the College Football Playoff championship, including how Carson Beck’s health could impact Georgia’s chances.

    Lessons learned

    The selection committee did not want to completely upend the system in which college football operates today. It wanted to avoid penalizing the teams that played in conference championship games so those games continue to be played. They’re valuable to the leagues themselves, and if SMU had been knocked out of the bracket for playing in and losing one, no one would ever be incentivized to play in them again.

    Texas, Penn State, Indiana and other schools also showed us that the committee was willing to forgive a relatively weak conference schedule. CFP committee chair Warde Manuel said a few weeks back that teams can only play the opponents they’re scheduled to play. That raised a lot of eyebrows at the time, because we’re conditioned to expect the selection committee chair to wax poetically about strength of schedule. But it’s really a fascinating statement in the era of 16- to 18-team leagues that no longer use divisions. Schools within the same league have drastically different schedules through no fault of their own. And this committee decided that it wouldn’t penalize Indiana for not playing the same teams that Ohio State did. Even Texas didn’t get penalized for playing an SEC schedule far weaker than Georgia’s.

    The committee also seemed aware of the narratives surrounding its final decisions. Had Alabama gotten in as a three-loss at-large team so much of the conversation surrounding the bracket would be about SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s influence on the committee and the CFP itself. We’ve already had commissioners calling out the committee for perceived brand bias, both at the individual school level and for the SEC as a league — which I’d argue certainly played a role in Florida State’s snub in 2023. If the public and representatives of the schools themselves lost more faith in the committee because it picked a big-name school that seemed to get an endless amount of mulligans, well, this whole discourse would have gotten even more toxic.

    2024 SEC Championship - Georgia v Texas

    Here’s the full schedule for the 2024-25 College Football Playoff.

    What comes next

    Well, we are going to continue to hear complaints from SEC country. I’m sure Sankey will criticize the committee for not rewarding his teams for playing such rigorous schedules (even though Alabama lost to teams that went .500 on the season but played better against the good SEC teams). Sankey has always been confident that SEC teams would get respect from the selection committee, no matter the makeup of the group or the type of season the top SEC teams are actually having. But he and Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti also put the committee on notice a few months ago by saying they’d be watching how the 13-member group evaluated and seeded their teams. Sankey won’t be happy that one of his teams was the first one out (and that Ole Miss and South Carolina were out as well).

    It’s possible that leads to Sankey pushing for CFP reform ahead of the new CFP contract in 2026 — or maybe even next season. Does he get on board with the Big Ten’s idea of as many as three or four multiple automatic qualifiers for the Big Ten and SEC, which would then take decision-making out of the hands of humans on committee? If the top four SEC teams automatically qualified for the bracket every year, Sankey would not have to stump for his teams publicly like he did this month. Coaches also wouldn’t complain about challenging schedules as much if they weren’t evaluated by a committee that hyperfixates on the number of losses in the loss column.

    Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne said Sunday night that he would re-evaluate Alabama’s approach to nonconference scheduling moving forward (even though two SEC losses were what kept the Tide out of the field). He’s essentially saying that there’s no benefit to scheduling other Power 4 teams in the nonconference if it could wear you out ahead of a tough SEC slate. I’d argue marquee nonconference games could help offset a bad SEC loss (say, to Vanderbilt) later on the in the year, but this appears to be a talking point that’s gaining steam in a league that plays just eight conference games. While I do agree that teams such as Texas and Penn State didn’t seem to get dinged this year for a lack of big wins, I think Alabama’s issues are actually with its own conference … not nonconference scheduling. The SEC added Texas and Oklahoma knowing everyone’s league schedules would get tougher. They added them because they’re big brands with historical success, and that increased the value of the SEC as a whole. If you’re frustrated that the schedule is so tough that you could lose to a team in the middle of the pack of the SEC, that’s really an issue with how the league is structured and how it’s scheduling.



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  • Oregon earns top seed in College Football Playoff bracket, Rourke takes on Notre Dame

    Oregon earns top seed in College Football Playoff bracket, Rourke takes on Notre Dame

    The new, 12-team College Football Playoff brings with it a promise to be bigger, more exciting, more lucrative.

    Perfect or 100 per cent fair? Well, nobody ever believed that.

    The first expanded playoff bracket unveiled Sunday left a presumably deserving Alabama team on the sideline in favour of an SMU squad that finished with a better record after playing a schedule that was not as difficult.

    It ranked undefeated Oregon first but set up a possible rematch against Ohio State, the team that came closest to beating the Ducks this year.

    It treated underdog Boise State like a favourite and banged-up Georgia like a world beater at No. 2.

    It gave Ohio State home-field advantage against Tennessee for reasons it would take a supercomputer to figure out.

    It gave the sport the multi-week tournament it has longed for, but also ensured there will be plenty to grouse about between now and when the trophy is handed out on Jan. 20 after what will easily be the longest college football season in history.

    All of it, thankfully, will be sorted out on the field starting with first-round games on campuses Dec. 20 and 21, then over three succeeding rounds that will wind their way through traditional bowl sites.

    Maybe Oregon coach Dan Lanning, whose undefeated Ducks are the favourite to win it all, put it best when he offered: “Winning a national championship is not supposed to be easy.”

    Neither, it turns out, is figuring out who should play for it.

    Alabama comes up short in bracket’s biggest debate

    The Big Ten will lead the way with four teams in the tournament, followed by the SEC with three and the ACC with two. The lasting memory from the inaugural bracket will involve the decision that handed the ACC that second bid.

    Alabama of the SEC didn’t play Saturday. SMU of the ACC did. The Mustangs fell behind by three touchdowns to Clemson before coming back to tie. But they ultimately lost 34-31 on a 56-yard field goal as time expired.

    “We were on pins and needles,” SMU coach Rhett Lashley said. “Until we saw the name ‘SMU’ up there, we were hanging on the edge. We’re really, really happy and thankful to the committee for rewarding our guys for their total body of work.”

    The Mustangs only had two losses, compared to three for the Crimson Tide. Even though SMU’s schedule wasn’t nearly as tough, the committee was impressed by the way the Mustangs came back against Clemson.

    “We just felt, in this particular case, SMU had the nod above Alabama,” said Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, the chairman of the selection committee. “But it’s no disrespect to Alabama’s strength of schedule. We looked at the entire body of work for both teams.”

    Crimson Tide AD gracious, but looking for answers

    Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne was gracious, up to a point.

    “Disappointed with the outcome and felt we were one of the 12 best teams in the country,” he said on social media.

    He acknowledged — despite all of Alabama’s losses coming against conference opponents this season — that the Tide’s push to schedule more games against teams from other major conferences in order to improve its strength of schedule did not pay off this time.

    “That is not good for college football,” Byrne said.

    Georgia, Boise State, Arizona State join Oregon with first-round byes

    Georgia, the SEC champion, was seeded second; Boise State, the Mountain West champion, earned the third seed; and Big 12 title winner Arizona State got the fourth seed and the fourth and final first-round bye.

    All will play in quarterfinals at bowl games on Dec. 31-Jan. 1.

    Clemson stole a bid and the 12th seed with its crazy win over SMU, the result that ultimately cost Alabama a spot in the field. The Tigers moved to No. 16 in the rankings, but got in as the fifth-best conference winner.

    Automatic byes, bids make bracket strange

    The conference commissioners’ idea to give conference champions preferable treatment in this first iteration of the 12-team playoff could be up for reconsideration after this season.

    The committee actually ranked Boise State, the Mountain West Champion, at No. 9 and Big 12 champion Arizona State at No. 12, but both get to skip the first round.

    Another CFP guideline: There’s no reseeding of teams after each round, which means no break for Oregon. The top-seeded Ducks will face the winner of Tennessee-Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Oregon beat Ohio State 32-31 earlier this year in one of the season’s best games.

    What the matchups look like

    No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas, Dec. 21. Clemson is riding high after the SMU upset, while Texas is 0-2 against Georgia and 11-0 vs. everyone else this season. The winner faces … Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. Huh?

    No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State, Dec. 21. The biggest knock against the Mustangs was that they didn’t play any big boys with that 60th-ranked strength of schedule. Well, now they get to. The winner faces … Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Yes, SMU vs. Boise was the quarterfinal we all expected.

    No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame, Dec. 20. Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti thought his team deserved a home game. Well, not quite but close. The winner faces … Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs got the No. 2 seed despite a throwing-arm injury to QB Carson Beck. But what else was the committee supposed to do?

    No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State, Dec. 21. The Buckeyes (losses to Oregon, Michigan) got home field over the Volunteers (losses to Arkansas, Georgia) in a matchup of programs with two of the biggest stadiums in football. The winner faces … Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Feels like that matchup should come in the semifinals or later.

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  • What would a 4-team College Football Playoff field look like in 2024?

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  • Three key questions will be answered when College Football Playoff bracket’s released

    Three key questions will be answered when College Football Playoff bracket’s released

    We’ve had March Madness. Now there is December Drama.

    On Sunday afternoon, there will be a college football bracket: 12 teams in the first year of the expanded College Football Playoff.

    After a decade of four schools getting chosen, the sport adopted expansion to give more programs a shot. It created additional interest in the regular season and the feeling that the championship truly is up for grabs.

    Shortly after noon, the pairings will be announced. The top four seeds will be given to the highest ranked conference champions instead of the four highest ranked teams, which could create chaos down the road.

    The Post prepares you for the festivities:

    Who is No. 1?

    This is an easy one. Undefeated Oregon entered the Big Ten championship game the heavy favorite and locked up the top spot with a 45-37 victory over third-ranked Penn State.

    Landing the No. 1 seed, however, isn’t a huge advantage, aside from receiving a bye.

    Oregon will face the No. 8/No. 9 winner, which actually will likely be a tougher quarterfinal opponent than the fifth seed will face if it gets that far, since the four highest seeds are conference champions.

    This is something that has to be addressed in the future.

    Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel celebrates after his team’s 45-37 Big Ten title win over Penn State on Dec. 7, 2024. Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

    Imagine if the second-place seed in the SEC or Big 12 received a worse seed than the AAC or Atlantic 10 winner in the NCAA Tournament on the hardwood?

    Is Alabama in?

    The Crimson Tide were thought to be done after that no-show performance at six-win Oklahoma a few weeks ago.

    But everything has gone right since. Alabama manhandled Auburn in the Iron Bowl while Miami, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all dropped games that moved Kalen DeBoer’s three-loss team up.

    Entering the day, most experts felt Alabama was safe because it was ranked 11th by the committee. Since No. 8 SMU dropped the ACC championship game to No. 17 Clemson, there is a scenario the Mustangs could knock the Crimson Tide out.

    Quarterback Jalen Milroe’s Alabama squad has a solid chance to gain at at-large bid into the 12-team College Football Playoff, The Post’s Zach Braziller says. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

    SMU has one fewer loss but not nearly the quality of Alabama’s win at home over Georgia, which looks even better now that the Bulldogs won the powerhouse SEC. And the committee has been bumping down teams off of losses by several spots.

    It’s hard to see Alabama being left out. Miami, ranked 12th, doesn’t seem like it has a realistic shot, since it really is ranked 13th, as No. 15 Arizona State received the automatic as the Big 12 champion.

    What does the opening round look like?

    Oregon (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC) and No. 10 Boise State (highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion) get three of the byes.

    Then, it comes down to Arizona State or Clemson for the fourth one. We give Arizona State the slight edge because it has one fewer loss.

    Notre Dame, led by quarterback Riley Leonard, likely will be the No. 5 seed in the 12-team College Football playoff, The Post’s Zach Braziller predicts. AP

    One-loss Notre Dame receives the top at-large and the fifth seed, drawing Clemson in an intriguing opening-round matchup.

    I don’t see the committee punishing Texas too much for its conference championship game loss.

    Texas drops down to No. 6, where it will face No. 11 Alabama. While Penn State played well against Oregon, it lost head-to-head to Ohio State, giving the Buckeyes the advantage.

    Ohio State is the seventh seed as a result and meets No. 10 Indiana, while Penn State falls to No. 8 and takes on ninth-seeded Tennessee.

    There are a few potential blockbusters in there, highlighted by the Texas-Alabama showdown.

    All four contests will be played on campus, with the quarterfinals being moved to bowl sites. That’s another aspect of this new system that is appealing.

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  • College Football Playoff expert picks: Alabama or SMU in last spot? Notre Dame, Texas or Penn State at No. 5?

    College Football Playoff expert picks: Alabama or SMU in last spot? Notre Dame, Texas or Penn State at No. 5?

    The SMU versus Alabama debate for the final at-large bid in the 2025 College Football Playoff has understandably stolen the spotlight entering Selection Sunday. There is also significant consternation about how the first few teams outside the top four conference champions will be decided. Ultimately, how the committee interprets those league title game results will have ripple effects throughout the field. 

    Let’s start with the debate over the final at-large bid.

    Alabama held that spot in last Tuesday’s penultimate CFP Rankings, and it looked in good shape to maintain that slot after CFP chairman Warde Manuel said the rankings were locked for teams not playing conference championship weekend.

    However, there was a doomsday scenario: Clemson pulling off an upset over SMU in the ACC Championship Game with the Mustangs playing well enough to warrant a spot in the field.

    Unfortunately for the Crimson Tide, that’s exactly what happened Saturday night. Clemson freshman kicker Nolan Hauser’s 56-yard walk-off game-winning field goal not only propelled the Tigers into the field as an automatic qualifier but gave SMU a more-than-reasonable chance to receive an at-large bid.

    SMU (11-2) has fewer losses than Alabama (9-3) but exists in a similar space as Miami (FL) in that it lacks resume-boosting wins. The Mustangs are 0-2 against top 25 opponents, while Alabama has a 3-1 record against teams, including a win over newly crowned SEC champion Georgia. Furthermore, Alabama’s strength of schedule (18th) is considerably better than that of SMU (75th) as the Tide’s opponents had a combined record of 82-50 while the Mustangs’ were 83-75. 

    The SMU case? Well, it went undefeated during ACC regular-season play (8-0), and its two losses are nowhere near as bad as Alabama’s 21-point defeat to 6-6 Oklahoma (in which Bama scored 3 points) or its road loss to 6-6 Vanderbilt. SMU’s wins against Louisville and Pittsburgh were notable at the time, too. 

    If Alabama ranked a spot above Miami in the penultimate CFP Rankings, one could surmise it deserves to hold the same spot when compared head-to-head against SMU given the argument is identical. And that may be exactly what happens!

    However, SMU finished as a Power Four conference runner-up in a tightly-contested ACC title game it lost 34-31. If the CFP Selection Committee completely dropped SMU out of the field, it would set a dangerous precedent for conference championship games, which are generally major money makers for leagues. It would essentially incentivize teams to not seek out those opportunities so as not to lose and potentially fall all the way out of the playoff field.

    Alabama got the benefit of the doubt last season as it received the final spot over undefeated Florida State in a decision that still roils the ACC. This time around, the ACC has a better chance of bouncing an SEC team out for the last at-large bid. 

    How will the top three at-large bids shake out?

    The committee doesn’t simply have to decide what to do with ACC championship loser SMU. It also needs to figure out where to put one-loss Notre Dame, SEC runner-up Texas and Big Ten runner-up Penn State. The Fighting Irish were No. 4 in the penultimate CFP Rankings, while the Longhorns were No. 2 (slated for a first-round bye with an SEC win) and the Nittany Lions placed No. 3 as the second Big Ten team behind No. 1 Oregon.

    Texas (11-2) lost to Georgia, 24-19, in the first SEC title game to reach overtime, a contest the Longhorns easily could have won. Penn State (11-2) fell to the Ducks in a one-score 45-37 loss. And then you have Notre Dame (11-1), which did not play Saturday but in theory could slide up if Texas and Penn State both move down.

    Texas’ only two losses are to Georgia, giving it the best defeats of the group; however, Penn State’s two losses (Ohio State, Oregon) are in the same neighborhood. Notre Dame has by far the worst loss to Northern Illinois (7-5), a seventh-place MAC team. That it came at home, too, making it the worst loss of any CFP contender. 

    The ‘Horns are 0-2 against top 25 opponents, a major knock on their resume. The Nittany Lions hold a singular top 25 win (No. 19 Illinois), while the Irish only possesses one top 25 win over AAC champion Army West Point (No. 24). Army’s win Friday night over Tulane only strengthens ND’s argument. 

    Just like with Alabama and SMU, it will be interesting to see whether the committee chooses to penalize teams that competed in league title games, especially ones that were extremely close. Notre Dame has been steadily moving up the rankings in recent weeks, and there’s an argument it should jump Texas and Penn State. It almost certainly would in a normal week. 

    However, in this scenario, it feels more likely that the committee will keep Texas and Penn State ahead of Notre Dame. That’s not an insignificant decision, either, given how the field is shaping up.

    If Notre Dame ends up as the No. 7 seed, that sets up a possible quarterfinal against No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. If Notre Dame instead receives the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, it would likely play Boise State or Arizona State in a quarterfinal.

    The tougher question will be how the committee weighs Texas versus Penn State. The resumes are fairly similar, and both lost marquee conference championship games by single scores. Texas was ranked higher than Penn State entering Saturday night, which might end up being the slight edge that puts the ‘Horns in the No. 5 seed.

    Keep on reading for expert picks on slots No. 5-7 in the College Football Playoff field along with which team our CBS Sports college football writers believe will receive the final at-large bid. You can also check out a complete slate of 2024-25 bowl projections from bowls expert Jerry Palm.

    College Football Playoff projection

    The top two seeds of the CFP are all but a formality after Oregon remained undefeated by beating Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game and Georgia knocked off Texas for the second time this season to win the SEC Championship Game. Boise State (Mountain West) and Arizona State (Big 12) will be the other conference champions who receive byes given Clemson (ACC) has three losses.

    While there is an argument that the Sun Devils should be the No. 3 seed above the Broncos, ASU was ranked five spots lower in the penultimate CFP Rankings. As such, bowls experts Jerry Palm and Brad Crawford both agree the top four seeds — each receiving first-round byes — will shake out as follows:

    1. Oregon (13-0)
    2. Georgia (11-2)
    3. Boise State (12-1)
    4. Arizona State (11-2)

    College Football Playoff expert picks

    Here’s how our college football staff would vote in the key spots — choosing teams Nos. 5-7 and the last at-large bid in the field — if they were members of the CFP Selection Committee.



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