Taking up the cause for Alabama and the SEC feels like going to bat for Apple or Amazon. It’s fighting for a tax break for Elon Musk or Warren Buffet. It’s rushing to the defense of the biggest bully on the block the one time somebody gets in a shot that knocks him to his knees.
Yet here I am, making the case for the Crimson Tide as the team the College Football Playoff selection snubbed from the first 12-team field.
I do like having an ally in the greatest coach of all time. ESPN’s Nick Saban, dressed in a crimson jacket on the selection show, tried to avoid sounding like a shill for the program he spent 17 years running, but his stance came through loud and clear.
“All wins are not the same as other wins,” Saban said during ESPN’s excruciatingly long lead-in to revealing the bracket Sunday. “In other words, what we’ve always done publicly in college is look at record. We don’t look at strength of schedule. We don’t look at all those types of things.”
This is a left-brain (analytical thinking), right-brain (emotional processing) deal.
If the committee truly had looked at “those types of things,” if this was more of a data-driven process, Alabama would be in the Playoff instead of SMU.
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Strength of schedule metrics vary, but most come to a similar conclusion about Alabama and SMU. The Crimson Tide’s schedule was more rigorous. ESPN’s FPI has Alabama playing the 18th toughest schedule and SMU the 57th toughest.
Most power rankings, which are forward-looking analytics, have Alabama ahead of SMU. The Athletic’s own modeler, Austin Mock, would have Alabama as a six-point favorite on a neutral field against SMU.
Years of recruiting rankings will tell you Alabama has one of the most talented rosters in the country and that the SEC is where the most good football players can be found. The SEC got three teams (Georgia, Texas, Tennessee) in the bracket, one fewer than the Big Ten and one more than the ACC.
“As someone with access to college tape and staff of 11 former NFL scouts that logged hundreds of hours evaluating this CFB season, it’s easy to see why SEC coaches are upset with the final playoff bracket,” Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy posted on X. “Based strictly off future NFL talent, Alabama, South Carolina, & Ole Miss (and you can even throw in Florida, Texas A&M, and LSU for that matter) are all easily in Top-12.”
I get it. Alabama always seems to get the nod from the selection committee. When in doubt, go with the team that made the CFP eight times in 10 years when it was a four-team format — and won it three times.
Even last year, the committee bypassed unbeaten Florida State — because it lost star quarterback Jordan Travis to a season-ending injury — in favor of one-loss Alabama.
Do we really need to give the benefit of the doubt to the worst Alabama team in almost two decades, one that lost games to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, both of which would not have been bowl-eligible if they hadn’t beaten the Tide? Most Alabama fans don’t even think their team had a good year.
Left brain or right brain?
How much did rallying around SMU have to do with the Mustangs’ story — a four-decade climb back from the NCAA death penalty — more than their resume? It sure would have felt awful to keep them out of the Playoff after they lost the ACC Championship Game on what will go down as one of the greatest, clutchest kicks in the history of college football by Clemson’s Nolan Hauser.
“When the announcement happened, honestly, I got emotional, just because I’m so happy for our kids,” SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said on ESPN. “They’ve worked so hard. They’ve won 22 games in the last two years. They laid it all on the line last night. We lost heartbreaking at the end to a great opponent.”
The Mustangs put the committee in a difficult position and exposed a glaring flaw in the system, adding to the reasons the CFP needs to do away with its weekly in-season rankings during the season’s final month.
So much talk heading into conference championship weekend was about how much a team should be penalized for losing a title game. The committee’s answer was resounding: not much. Texas, Penn State and SMU all lost their conference title games. All were very competitive. None dropped more than two spots from last week’s rankings.
The rankings show is just that: a show. Content that helps get people talking about the Playoff in November. There is value to that. It is understandable that the conference commissioners who run the CFP would want to control the process instead of letting fans use the AP Top 25 to speculate about what the Playoff race looks like down the stretch.
“I do believe it’s good for us to release our ranking, because our ranking is out there and competes with two others, the AP and the coaches,” committee chairman Warde Manuel said. “So I think it’s important, since they release a weekly ranking, that at the appropriate time in the season … that we release how we’re thinking so people are not surprised in analyzing and trying to figure out how the committee is thinking about things.”
The chairman has a talking point that the committee starts each week with a blank sheet of paper when it begins ranking teams.
But Manuel also said last week that teams not playing on championship weekend were done being evaluated. They could move around based on the movement of other teams that were playing for league titles, but the order of teams such as Alabama, Miami, South Carolina, etc., was set.
Saban pointed out the problem with SMU and Alabama was SMU entering the weekend ahead in the first place, and maybe he’s right. SMU should have been playing its way into the field instead of playing its way out in the ACC Championship Game, he said.
“Playing in (the SEC), and I played in this conference for over 20 years, and when you have to go play Tennessee, then you have to go play LSU, then that team that you play next, now you might be more vulnerable to,” Saban said.
Saban, Greg Sankey, the SEC and Alabama don’t make for the most sympathetic victims, nor should they be viewed that way.
Defending them all feels like demanding that the spoiled kid who seems to have all the toys also gets a pony — or in this case, the Ponies’ spot in the Playoff.
But it’s hard not to admit that when you crunch the numbers, they have a point.
(Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
