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  • College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State – prediction, odds, expert picks, QBs, betting trends, and stats

    College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State – prediction, odds, expert picks, QBs, betting trends, and stats

    Outside of a 18-15 Week 3 loss to a 10-2 BYU team, SMU (11-2) ran through their 60th ranked ACC schedule to go undefeated in conference play during their maiden Power Four campaign. A 28-27 victory over @Duke (9-3) carried the lowest win expectancy of SMU’s wins at 74%, which showcases the dominant nature of the Mustangs’ success. Their offense ranks 4th nationally in SP+ with their lethal pass attack placing 11th nationally in EPA/dropback and 9th in yards per successful dropback (17.7). The SMU rushing attack is clearly the weakest unit on the team, ranking 73rd in rush success rate and 118th in YAC (2.15). It couldn’t be any different on the defensive side, as their defensive front is holding opponents to 7.4 yards per successful rush (3rd in FBS) and an outstanding .75 yards before contact allowed (9th). The SMU secondary is also a sound unit that ranks 10th in pass success rate and 16th in QBR allowed.

    The Nittany Lions (11-2) cruised through the first half with their closest victory being a thrilling Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC with PSU recording an 86%-win expectancy. Outside of that game, each of their other 10 victories carried near perfect 94%+ win expectations with Penn State demonstrating a comprehensive mastery of their B10 regular season schedule, aside from OSU of course. OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks 2nd in success rate, 5th in EPA/play and 2nd in marginal efficiency. There are flaws though as PSU’s offense lacks big play ability, ranking a dismal 92nd in yards per successful play and 63rd in yards per successful rush. The Nittany Lions Defense has been elite once again, ranking 7th in SP+ with their topflight secondary allowing just 5.2 yards per dropback (14th). Projected Top 10 2025 NFL Draft selection Abdul Carter leads a pass rush that ranks 25th overall with a 7.8% sack rate and 9th with a 42.3% pressure rate.

    NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

    Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!

    Game Details and How to watch the 2024 College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State

    · Date: Saturday, December 21, 2024
    · Time: 12:00 PM EST
    · Site: Beaver Stadium
    · City: University Park, PA
    · TV/Streaming: TNT/Max

    Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

    Game odds for SMU at Penn State

    • Moneyline: Penn State (-350), SMU (+270)
    • Spread: Penn State -8.5
    • Over/Under: 52.5 points

    The spread opened at Penn State -8 but has since inched up to -9 in some spots and could steam up to the key number of -10 by kickoff. PSU’s moneyline dropped at -298 and is up to a high of -350, while SMU has improved from +240 to +270. The game total opened at 52.5 but that has since spiked to a high of 54.

    NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

    NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
    “SMU’s defense has allowed 24+ points in 7 games this year and have scored 28+ in all but one contest. Both teams were involved in competitive Conference Championship games that easily cleared their game total Overs. SMU showed that they can play from behind against a strong defense like Clemson, which is the likely scenario against Penn State’s extremely efficient offense that ranks 2nd in success rate. I think these two offenses execute well enough to clear the 52.5 game total, and think it steadily continues to increase as the game draws closer.”

    Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

    Quarterback matchup for College Football Playoff – SMU at Penn State

    • Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar has been the unquestioned starter for the last two seasons after spending a one-year apprenticeship to Sean Clifford. Allar ranks 12th nationally with an 86th percentile PFF overall grade and has been exceptional navigating the pocket, rating 8th in FBS with a 71st% under-pressure grade. As a team, PSU ranks 2nd in passing success rate and is achieving first down yardage on 61.8% of their completions (6th). With Allar entering his third, and potentially final, season in Happy Valley, this may be Penn State’s best chance in the near future to secure a National Championship.
    • SMU: Heading into fall camp conventional wisdom had former four-star QB Preston Stone reprising his 2023 role as SMU’s starting quarterback. However, QB Kevin Jennings wowed the coaching staff in fall camp to the point that HC Rhett Lashlee committed to giving him reps in the season opener. That arrangement lasted three weeks until Jennings finally secured the starting job in their 18-15 loss to BYU. He went onto complete 66.1% of his throws for 3,072 yards, a 22-to-8 ratio and 8.8 yards per attempt which ranks 7th best among Power Four signal callers. He boasts advanced ability to escape the rush, as is evidenced by a 12.2% pressure-to-sack rate, and an 85.3 PFF passing grade.

    SMU at Penn State: Betting trends & recent stats

    • Star Penn State TE Tyler Warren ranks 1st among Power Four tight ends with 112 targets. Penn State Tight Ends have produced 19 receptions of 20+ yards this season, 2nd-most among FBS programs.
    • RB Nicholas Singleton has rushed for 10 or more yards on 19.8% of 131 carries this season, 7th-best among qualified Power Four running backs. SMU’s defense has allowed 10+ yards on just 7.7% of carries this season, best among ACC defenses.
    • Penn State is 1-6 (.143) against the spread when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, worst among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .432)
    • Penn State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 364 attempts this season, tied for 20th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.1% of attempts this season, best among ACC defenses.
    • Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 195 of 807 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2023 season, best among Power Conference programs.
    • Penn State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 3 of 679 attempts since the 2023 season, best in FBS.
    • SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of 72% in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams.
    • WR Roderick Daniels has committed 6 fumbles this season, most among Power Conference skill players
    • SMU has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 34 of 443 carries this season, 5th-best in FBS.
    • SMU’s offense has thrown for 3,471 passing yards in 13 games this season, 26th-best among FBS offenses. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 178.5 passing yards per game this season, 16th-best among FBS defenses.
    • SMU has allowed 106.5 yards from scrimmage per game to running backs this season, 4th-best among Power Conference Teams.
    • QB Kevin Jennings has completed 70% of passes (62 completions/89 net pass attempts) on 3rd down this season, 3rd-best among FBS Quarterbacks.

    BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

    “Oregon, Georgia and Texas are the favorites to win the College Football Playoff. We will be cheering for the chalk as all three of those teams are good results for the sportsbook.” – Cameron Drucker, Senior Trader, BetMGM

    Line movement (Open to Now)

    • Oregon +900 to +350
    • Texas +1000 to +350
    • Georgia +500 to +375
    • Ohio State +700 to +475

    Highest Ticket%

    • Ohio State 12.6%
    • Texas 10.7%
    • Georgia 9.6%

    Highest Handle%

    • Ohio State 15.9%
    • Alabama 13.1%
    • Georgia 13.0%

    Biggest Liabilities

    • Alabama
    • Colorado
    • Ohio State

    College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

    Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

    Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

    • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
    • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
    • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
    • Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
    • Eric Froton (@CFFroton)



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  • Oregon vs. Penn State picks, odds

    Oregon vs. Penn State picks, odds

    It has been 52 years since an NFL season ended with an undefeated team. It has been nearly five decades since Bobby Knight’s Hoosiers completed their perfect season. 

    In college football, it is commonplace. 

    Michigan ran the table last season, the fifth national champion in six years to go undefeated. In six of the past nine national title games, both teams entered unbeaten. The BCS era (1998-2013) produced 19 perfect seasons. 

    This season has been an unusually chaotic mess. The highest-ranking teams have been as untrustworthy as any group since the 2007 season, which featured the only two-loss national champion (LSU) of the modern era. 

    The reigning champs (Michigan) suffered as many losses in their first seven games as they had the previous three years. The most dominant team of the decade (Georgia) lost as many games as it had the previous three seasons. The most dominant team of the generation (Alabama) lost its aura without Nick Saban, with its most losses in 14 years. 

    Following a decade when no playoff team had more than one loss, the 12-team field could include as many as eight teams with multiple losses — including Alabama (9-3) — and conclude with one of the least-celebrated champions of the era. 

    Unless Oregon is the last team standing. 

    Following Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, No. 1 Oregon (12-0) — the nation’s top-ranked team for seven straight weeks — has finally become the betting favorite for the national championship, a decade after losing the first College Football Playoff title game. 

    The Ducks have been building toward this moment. Under Dan Lanning — who won a national championship as an assistant at Alabama and another as Georgia’s defensive coordinator — Oregon went 10-3 in his first season. The Ducks went 12-2 last season, with those losses coming by a total of six points against the national championship runner-up (Washington). 

    This year’s group has won by an average of nearly 20 points per game, defeating No. 6 Ohio State, No. 10 Boise State and No. 21 Illinois. Oregon again boasts one of the best offensive lines in the nation, allowing just five sacks in its past 10 games. Graduate transfer — and one-time Heisman favorite — Dillon Gabriel became the NCAA’s all-time leader for total touchdowns. The Ducks defense ranks among the top 10 units in the nation, most recently recording 10 sacks against Washington, while limiting star running back Jonah Coleman to three yards rushing. 

    The choice in the Big Ten title game is simple: Oregon (-3.5), the most consistent team in the country, or James Franklin, who has ridden an ultra-soft schedule to his 21st meeting at Penn State against a top 10 opponent (2-18). 

    Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin reacts during the third quarter of Penn State’s home victory over Maryland on Nov. 30, 2024. AP

    Western Kentucky (+3.5) over JACKSONVILLE STATE

    The Hilltoppers on Saturday knocked off the Gamecocks, whose coach, Rich Rodriguez, is surrounded by rumors he will soon leave the program. Even if Jacksonville State quarterback Tyler Huff — a game-time decision — returns from an ankle injury, the dual-threat quarterback will be limited in what he does best in the rematch. 

    Unlv (+4) over BOISE STATE

    The Broncos won last year’s Mountain West Championship with ease against UNLV. This season, Boise State went to Las Vegas and left with a win. UNLV, though, has the ingredients to pull the upset, with a top-15 run defense that held Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty to his worst performance of the season (3.9 yards per carry). The Broncos deserved a chance to play for a national championship under Chris Petersen, but now carry the weight of Idaho against a team with eight straight road wins. 

    Black Knights quarterback Bryson Daily runs with the ball during Army’s 29-24 home win over UTSA on Nov. 30, 2024. Danny Wild-Imagn Images

    ARMY (+4.5) over Tulane

    A team stacked with players raised below the Mason-Dixon Line won’t enjoy the freezing temperatures beside the Hudson River. The tougher team will be made clear in the trenches, where Tulane’s defensive line has been pushed around in all three of its losses, allowing an average of 211 yards rushing. In leading the nation’s best ground game, Bryson Daily will wrap up his incredible career at West Point with an unforgettable AAC Championship performance. 

    Arizona State (-2.5) over Iowa State

    The Cyclones achieved their first 10-win season in school history, with one of the softest schedules in the Big 12 and the league’s top-scoring defense, averaging nearly two takeaways per game. The Sun Devils, tied for seventh in the nation in fewest turnovers, would be wise to ride criminally under-discussed star running back Cam Skattebo against a defense ranked 112th against the run. 

    Miami (Ohio) (-3) over Ohio

    Sixth-year Redhawks quarterback Brett Gabbert will claim his third MAC title (second consecutive). Miami’s 30-20 win in the rivalry in October is more impressive than the box score suggests, having allowed a pair of garbage-time touchdowns to the Bobcats. 

    Carson Beck throws a pass during the second half of Georgia’s win over Florida on Nov. 2, 2024. AP

    Georgia (+2.5) over Texas

    The Longhorns faced one team this season that currently has a number next to its name. That game, in Austin, ended with Georgia handing Texas the worst home loss, 30-15, of a No. 1 team in 42 years. The Bulldogs received their wake-up call in the eight-overtime thriller against Georgia Tech and will find the form of the team with three double-digit wins over potential playoff teams (Texas, Tennessee, Clemson). Carson Beck has recovered from his midseason slump, throwing 11 touchdowns with no interceptions in the past three games. He carries an 8-3 career record against ranked teams into a de facto home game in Atlanta. 

    Marshall (+5.5) over LOUISIANA

    The Thundering Herd can limit how much Louisiana’s explosive offense has the ball, with a ground game averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game. Defensive lineman Mike Green can also disrupt the Cajuns’ rhythm, entering a half-sack shy (16) of the most in the nation. Marshall is 4-0 against the spread as an underdog this season. 

    Betting on College Football?

    Smu (-2.5) over Clemson

    The line opened with the Tigers as the favorite, but the brand name isn’t fooling anyone anymore. No. 17 Clemson (9-3) has no business being anywhere near the playoff, reaching the ACC Championship without earning one win over any of the other six teams with a winning record in the conference. SMU’s (11-1) elite defensive front will keep the offense of Clemson — averaging less than 21 points in its past four games — scuffling. 

    Best bets: Oregon, Unlv, Arizona State 
    This season: 111-98-1 (17-24-1) 
    2014-23 record: 1,272-1,206-30

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  • Sporting vs. Arsenal live stream, lineups: Where to watch Champions League online, pick, prediction, odds

    Sporting vs. Arsenal live stream, lineups: Where to watch Champions League online, pick, prediction, odds

    Can Sporting keep up their remarkable run through the Champions League even without the manager who established them as title winners in Portugal once more? Tuesday should offer the first indication as a Ruben Amorim-less side welcome Arsenal to the Estadio Jose Alvalade.

    Sporting’s first game since their head coach departed for Manchester United proved to be a comprehensive triumph for new boss Joao Pereira, but Arsenal will pose a much greater challenge than third tier Amarante, who lost 6-0 in the fourth round of the Portuguese Cup. With the Gunners in form and having rested several players for the win over Nottingham Forest, this promises to be an intriguing clash. Here is how you can watch the match and what you need to know:

    Viewing information

    • Date: Tuesday, Nov. 26 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
    • Location: Estadio Jose Alvalade — Lisbon, Portugal
    • Live stream: Paramount+
    • Odds: Sporting +220; Draw +250; Arsenal +125

    Team news

    Sporting: Pedro Goncalves’ absence could be a profound headache for Pereira. The 26-year-old may not be as starry a name as Viktor Gyokores but do not underestimate his ability to drive Sporting up the pitch as an auxiliary midfielder while providing the sort of double figure goal and assist return more associated with a forward. In his place could come former Tottenham winger Marcus Edwards.

    Left wing back Nuno Santos will also be missing for Sporting due to a knee injury while promising defender Zeno Debast is a doubt with a muscle issue.

    Possible Sporting XI: Israel; St. Juste, Diomande, Inacio; Catamo, Hjulmand, Morita, Quenda; Edwards, Gyokeres, Trincao

    Arsenal: It was not just the return to winning ways that was so encouraging for Mikel Arteta on Saturday, but the way in which his side were able to overcome Nottingham Forest while also rotating the XI. Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Thomas Partey could all come into the XI, as might Declan Rice, whose recovery from a toe injury is being carefully managed.

    Indeed with Kieran Tierney having joined first team it is only full backs Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu (both suffering knee injuries) who are certain to be unavailable for Arteta in Lisbon.

    Possible Arsenal XI: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Odegaard, Partey, Merino; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli

    Prediction

    Don’t expect Sporting to run riot over Arsenal as they did City. The Premier League side should just about have enough. PICK: Sporting 1, Arsenal 2



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  • Utah Hockey Club at Toronto Maple Leafs odds, picks and predictions

    The Utah Hockey Club (8-9-3) meet the Toronto Maple Leafs (12-6-2) Sunday at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Utah Hockey Club vs. Maple Leafsodds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

    Season series: First meeting; Maple Leafs won 2-0 in 2023-24 vs. Arizona  Coyotes

    The Utah Hockey Club make the third stop of a 4-game road trip in this standalone game Sunday, and it is playing on no rest. Utah picked up a 6-1 win in Pittsburgh over the Penguins as a moderate favorite (-130) as the Over (6) cashed on Saturday.

    Utah is playing its first game on no rest this season. Last season, when the team was located in Arizona, it was 5-4-0 when playing on no rest with a plus-1 goal differential, while the Over was also 5-4-0.

    The Maple Leafs blanked the Vegas Golden Knights 3-0 last time out on Wednesday behind G Joseph Woll, who kicked aside all 31 shots he faced. C Fraser Minten was credited with the game-winning goal, while C William Nylander had a power-play goal, and RW Pontus Holmberg had an empty-net goal.

    Stream the NHL all season on ESPN+, with your team’s out-of-market games, exclusive games, originals and more. Get ESPN+ now!

    Utah Hockey Club at Maple Leafs odds

    Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NHL odds. Lines last updated at 7:13 a.m. ET.

    • Moneyline (ML): Utah Hockey Club +158 (bet $100 to win $158) | Maple Leafs -192 (bet $192 to win $100)
    • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Utah Hockey Club +1.5 (-160) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+130)
    • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +114 | U: -140)

    Utah Hockey Club at Maple Leafs projected goalies

    Karel Vejmelka (2-5-0, 2.21 GAA, .927 SV%) vs. Joseph Woll (4-2-0, 2.00 GAA, .922 SV%, 1 SO)

    Vejmelka started Saturday’s game in Pittsburgh, and he might be pressed into action with no rest. That’s because Connor Ingram is nursing an upper-body injury, and he is considered day to day. The team recalled Jaxson Stauber from Tucson of the AHL on an emergency basis.

    If Stauber makes his Utah debut, it would be his first NHL appearance since 2022-23 when he was with the Chicago Blackhawks. He was 5-1-0 with a 2.81 GAA and .911 SV% in his first 6 NHL starts.

    Woll has won 3 consecutive starts since Nov. 9, and he has allowed just 4 goals on 79 shots in the span. He has a 1.74 GAA and .931 SV% in 4 outings in November.

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    Utah Hockey Club at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

    Prediction

    Maple Leafs 4, Utah Hockey League 2

    Moneyline

    The Maple Leafs (-192) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too much risk, even if the Utah Hockey Club (+158) is in a tough spot.

    Utah was impressive in Pittsburgh on Saturday, but it is facing a goalie crunch. Whether it uses Vejmelka again for a second straight day, or the AHL recall Stauber, the Utah Hockey Club cannot be trusted.

    AVOID.

    Puck line/Against the spread

    The MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (+130) are a better play laying the goal and a half at plus-money.

    Toronto picked up the 3-0 win against the Vegas Golden Knights behind Woll on Wednesday, and it is well rested.

    On the flip side, the Utah Hockey Club +1.5 (-170) is back on no rest, and whether it’s Vejmelka or Stauber in between the pipes, this team is in a bad way playing on no rest against a team which hasn’t played since Wednesday.

    Over/Under

    The UNDER 6.5 (+110) is an intriguing play at plus-money.

    Yes, Utah is coming back on no rest after playing Saturday in the Steel City, and it posted the Over in that victory. However, the Under has cashed at a 4-2-2 clip in the previous 8 games, and it is 10-4-2 in the past 16 outings.

    For the Maple Leafs, the Under cashed last time out against VGK, while the total has gone low at a 6-2 pace in the previous 8 games.

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  • College Football Picks, Week 13 Odds, TV Schedule And CFP Top 25 Including Indiana At Ohio State

    College Football Picks, Week 13 Odds, TV Schedule And CFP Top 25 Including Indiana At Ohio State

    The biggest games continue in the closing weeks of the college football season as the push towards the 12-team College Football Playoff shakes out in the final two weeks of the regular season. Also, the most emotional and biggest rivalray games are approaching for many teams, making November football the most watched and wagered month ahead of the college bowl season.

    Key CFB Top 25 games on Saturday, Nov. 23 include the Big Ten battle between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 5 Indiana. ESPN College GameDay will be in Columbus providing additional coverage and picks, along with more below.

    CFP Top 25 Week 13 Matchups, Odds and TV Schedule

    College football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Bet types, odds and terms with listed point spreads on favorites. All times Eastern.

    Saturday, Nov. 23

    • No. 1 Oregon | Bye
    • No. 2 Ohio State (-10.5) vs. No. 5 Indiana | 1 p.m. | FOX
    • No. 3 Texas (-20.5) vs. Kentucky | 3:30 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+
    • No. 4 Penn State (-11.5) at Minnesota | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
    • No. 6 Notre Dame (-14.5) vs. No. 19 Army | 7 p.m. | NBC (Yankee Stadium at the Bronx, NY)
    • No. 7 Alabama (-14.5) at Oklahoma | 7:30 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+
    • No. 8 Miami (-24.5) vs. Wake Forest | 12 p.m. | ESPN
    • No. 9 Ole Miss (-12.5) at Florida | 12 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+
    • No. 10 Georgia (-42.5) vs. UMASS | 12: 45 p.m. | SEC Network
    • No. 11 Tennessee (-41.5) vs. UTEP | 1 p.m.| ESPN+/SECN
    • No. 12 Boise State (-22.5) at Wyoming | 7 p.m. | CBSSN
    • No. 13 SMU (-10.5) at Virginia | 12 p.m. | ESPN2
    • No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State (-3.5) | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
    • No. 15 Texas A&M (-2.5) at Auburn | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
    • No. 16 Colorado (-2.5) vs. Kansas | 3:30 p.m.| FOX (at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
    • No. 17 Clemson (-49.5) vs. The Citadel | 3:30 p.m. | The CW
    • No. 18 South Carolina (-42.5) vs. Wofford | 4 p.m. | ESPN+/SECN+
    • No. 20 Tulane | Bye
    • No. 22 Iowa State (-6.5) at Utah | 7:30 p.m. | FOX
    • No. 23 Missouri (-8.5) at Mississippi State | 4:15 p.m. | SEC Network
    • No. 24 UNLV (-7.5) at San Jose State (Friday) | 10 p.m. | FS1
    • No. 25 Illinois at Rutgers (-1.5) | 12 p.m. | Peacock

    Rivalry games and spreads include:

    • Stanford at Cal (-14.5) | 3:30 p.m. | ACC Network
    • USC (-4.5) at UCLA | 10:30 p.m. | NBC

    Indiana At Ohio State

    The undefeated Hoosiers (10-0), who won 3-games last season, are the story of college football this season under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti. Indiana enters this showdown off a bye and a double-digit underdog to Ohio State (9-1). The spread has been bet down from -12 to -10.5 favoring the Buckeyes. Indiana is No. 1 in the country in scoring margin, but they’ve played a softer schedule. Still, the Hoosiers have been rewarding bettors with an 8-2 against the spread (ATS) mark, which is tied with five other teams for best in the country.

    Pro Football Focus provides matchup analysis of Indiana vs. Ohio State, and additional analysis in YouTube previewing the biggest games in college football on Saturday, Nov. 23. While Ohio State has a dominant defense allowing just 251 yards per game at 4.1 yards per play (both No. 2 in country), Indiana is right behind the Buckeyes allowing 270 ypg at 4.2 yppl. Pro Football Focus notes that Indiana marries the coverage with pass rush perhaps the best in the country. Indiana also has PFF’s best offensive grade in the country from Power Four teams, best receiving grade, top-10 pass blocking grade and QB Kurtis Rourke has the best passing grade. Ohio State has the No. 1 defense in college football, per PFF, and top-7 defensive pass coverage grade.

    Army vs. Notre Dame

    Army (9-0) is shooting for its first undefeated season since 1946. Playbook Sports midweek report provides added support for the Cadet’s No. 1 ranked rushing offense, averaging 330 yards per game vs. FBS opponents. The Black Knights allow just 10.8 points per game and 273 yards per game. Notre Dame (9-1) also has a dominant defense allowing 11.3 points per game and 277 yards per game. Army is one of only three FBS teams to win the stats in every game they’ve played this season.

    BYU at Arizona State

    BYU (9-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week vs. Kansas, 17-13. But the Cougars are 6-1 in Big 12 play and still control their destiny to the Big 12 championship game, along with Colorado (6-1). Arizona State (8-2) is 5-2 in conference play and on a 3-0 SU/ATS run ahead of this game in Tempe and next week’s rivalry game vs. Arizona in Tucson. The Sun Devils are also 5-0 SU/ATS at home, but statistically don’t warrant their high stock and 8-2 ATS mark overall with a +0.7 net yards per play margin to BYU’s +1.2.

    Friday, Nov. 29

    • Georgia Tech at Georgia (-20.5)

    Saturday, Nov. 30

    • NC State at North Carolina (-5.5)
    • Duke (-3.5) at Wake Forest
    • South Carolina at Clemson (-2.5)
    • Tennessee (-12.5) at Vanderbilt
    • Michigan at Ohio State (-23.5)
    • Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan (-6.5)
    • Washington at Oregon (-18.5)
    • Notre Dame (-6.5) at USC
    • Florida (-13.5) at Florida State
    • Auburn at Alabama (-14.5)
    • Louisville (-3.5) at Kentucky
    • Texas (-7.5) at Texas A&M

    Follow all the matchups, odds and college football betting news and predictions including Week 13 best bets as the popularity of college football and sports betting continues to flourish and provide fans more excitement and engagement in the games.

    You can bet on it.

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  • NFL Picks, Props And Odds For Week 10 Monday Night Football Dolphins-Rams

    NFL Picks, Props And Odds For Week 10 Monday Night Football Dolphins-Rams

    An interconference clash completes Week 10 of NFL action when the Miami Dolphins (2-6) tackle the Los Angeles Rams (4-4) at SoFi Stadium. Leading online sportsbooks report the Rams are taking more that 80% of the spread bets and money in an expeted higher scoring game.

    The week started with nine NFL teams sporting just 2-wins, and now the NFL standings show six including the Dolphins (five in AFC) after the Patriots, Panthers and Saints all won as underdogs to pick up their third win. Favorites are 8-5 straight up but just 3-10 against the spread (ATS) in Week 10 into the Dolphins-Rams MNF game.

    Monday Night Football Odds

    Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Bet types, odds and betting terms with listed point spreads on favorites.

    Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5), Over/Under 48.5 points

    Kickoff is at 8:15pm ET on ABC and ESPN, and streamed online at ESPN+ and NFL plus.

    Division Leaders

    AFC

    AFC division leaders include the Buffalo Bills (8-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2), Houston Texans (6-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (9-0), who remain undefeated after escaping with another win. A blocked short field goal on the final play against the Denver Broncos Sunday sent Chiefs players and fans into a frenzy.

    The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) are just 1/2 game behind the Steelers (7-2) in the AFC North in the tightest AFC division race. The Ravens lead the league in scoring, averaging 31.8 points per game following their thrilling 35-34 Thursday Night Football win over division foe Cincinnati Bengals to kick off Week 10 action.

    NFC

    Philaelphia Eagles (7-2), Detroit Lions (8-1), Atlanta Falcons (6-4) and Arizona Cardinals (6-4) are current NFC division leaders. The Lions also escaped Sunday with a 26-23 win on a last second 52-yard field goal after trailing the Houston Texans 23-7 at halftime. Another controversial penalty (pass interference) was not called against the Lions on the Texans final drive that resulted in a long missed 58-yard field goal to set up a short field and the Lions final drive to victory.

    Three tight divison races in the NFC show the Lions (8-1) one-game in front of the Minnesota Vikings (7-2) in the NFC North. The Cardinals (6-4) lead the NFC West by a half game over the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) and LA Rams (4-4) if they win Monday. The Washington Commanders (7-3) fell a half game behind the Eagles (7-2) in the NFC East following the Commanders 28-27 loss to the Steelers Sunday with another Week 10 player prop winner posted on Forbes.

    The Week 11 matchups and odds are posted by sportsbooks. The Commanders and Eagles kickoff the action Thursday, Nov. 14 with a first place showdown in Philadelphia and the Eagles a 3-point favorite.

    Dolphins-Rams Matchups And Props

    Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports provides additional matchups and advance stats for the Dolphins-Rams matchup with information you can bet on. The updated injury report and media updates show Dolphins star WR Tyreek Hill (wrist) as a game-time decision to play.

    • Miami’s offense was a trainwreck without Tua Tagovailoa but they’ve only been 14th in EPA per play with the starting quarterback on the field which is well below last season when they averaged 0.10 EPA/play (4th).
    • The Dolphins haven’t been able to get WR Tyreek Hill going as he’s averaging nearly 2 yards per route run less than last year. WR Jaylen Waddle is averaging 0.59 EPA/target (7th) but this might not be the game for Miami’s offense to feature the wide receivers.
    • The Rams are surrendering a league-high 67% success rate to opposing tight ends and will struggle with TE Jonnu Smith, who has a 66% success rate (2nd).
    • Dolphins RB De’Von Achane is averaging 0.17 EPA/target (2nd) and the screen game will be clicking against a Rams defense, who are worst in the NFL allowing a 66% receiving success rate to opposing running backs.
    • Los Angeles edge rusher Jared Verse’s 39 pressures are the most for a rookie through the first nine weeks of the season in five years, but he will be shut down by LT Terron Armstead, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.
    • Miami’s defense has a league-high 42% pressure rate, and the Rams will be without starting RT Rob Havenstein, who ranks 20th in pass-blocking efficiency. Backup Warren McClendon is surrendering an 11% pressure rate. Rams QB Matthew Stafford has thrown 78 passes over the past two games without a sack.
    • Los Angeles leads the NFL with a 78% motion rate but the Dolphins’ yards per pass play allowed against motion is a league-low 83% compared to no motion from the opposing offense.
    • Miami CB Jalen Ramsey conceding 0.73 yards per cover snap (7th) and he will contain WR Cooper Kupp, who is averaging 2.19 yards per route run (11th). WR Puka Nacua will be limited by Dolphins’ cornerback Kendall Fuller, who is allowing just 0.66 yards per cover snap (4th).
    • Our model favors the Rams by 2.4 points with a predicted total of 53.4.

    The Dolphins have lost three straight games since their bye week, despite winning the stats by a net margin of 30 yards per contest. That includes the last two games with QB Tua Tagovailoa returning from a Week 2 concussion and the Dolphins losing 30-27 and 28-27 to the first place Bills and Cardinals. The Rams have won 3-in-a-row including 30-20 over the Vikings and last week in Seattle, a 26-20 overtime win to keep the Rams challenging for an NFC West title.

    Player Props and Picks

    • MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa passing yards: Over/Under 244.5
    • LA QB Matthew Stafford passing yards: O/U 250.5
    • MIA RB De’Von Achane rushing yards: O/U 56.5, receiving 42.5
    • MIA RB Raheem Mostert rushing yards: O/U 32.5, receiving 7.5
    • LA RB Kyren williams rushing yards: O/U 84.5
    • MIA TE Jonnu Smith receiving yards: O/U 34.5, receptions 3.5
    • LA WR Puka Nacua receiving yards: O/U 67.5, receptions 5.5
    • LA WR Cooper Kupp receiving yards: O/U 66.5, receptions 5.5
    • LA WR Demarcus Robinson receiving yards: O/U 27.5, receptn 2.5

    The player prop picks posted on these NFL betting preview pages at Forbes have been scoring and cashing in Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9 and Week 10.

    Prop Bets: Dolphins RB De’Von Archane’s receiving yards prop has been bet up from O/U 39.5 to 42.5 on FanDuel and even 46.5 on DraftKings sportsbook. That shows the discrepancy in numbers and the importance of shopping numbers and sportsbooks when wagering. Can’t advise betting into that rising number, althouth many receiving yards props posted here have sailed over the players prop numbers. Instead, Achane Over 5.5 receptions (+100) is a bet. Achane leads Dolphins in receptions (37) this season, and he had 8 and 6 receptions the past two games with Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback. Now the matchups look even more favorable against the Rams as noted above and especially if Tyreek Hill does not play.

    If you’re betting on Rams receivers props of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Kupp has more favorable matchups as the slot receiver with the Dolphins defense allowing the eighth-highest percentage of targets go to the slot receiver. Puka Nacua under 5.5 receptions is a preferred play, but another bet of more interest is Rams TE Colby Parkinson under 18.5 receiving yards. He had zero targets or receptions last week against the Seahawks as his usage and plays on the field have declined the past two games after also catching just two passes for 17 yards against the Vikings and two receptions against the Raiders three games ago. The two receptions by Rams tight ends last game against the Seahawks went to backups. Too many other preferred options for QB Matthew Stafford, and Parkinson’s O/U receptions is just 1.5.

    Following the Miami-LA Monday Night Football game, the Dolphins return home to tackle the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) while the Rams hit the road to Foxboro and play the New England Patriots (3-7).

    More sports betting news, stats, MNF player props and information you can bet on as the NFL draws more watch and wager action with player props driving additional engagement, entertainment and interest.

    You can bet on it.

    MORE FROM FORBES

    ForbesNFL Picks, Props And Week 10 Odds: Eagles-Cowboys And Steelers-CommandersBy Jay GinsbachForbesNFL Picks, Props And Odds For Week 9 Monday Night Football Bucs-ChiefsBy Jay GinsbachForbesTackling The Challenge: The NFL’s Winning Strategy To Engage Gen-Z FansBy Shep HykenForbesThe NFL’s Highest-Paid Players 2024By Brett Knight



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  • 2024 college football Week 11 picks against the spread, odds, lines, trends: Vegas expert makes predictions

    2024 college football Week 11 picks against the spread, odds, lines, trends: Vegas expert makes predictions

    The Week 11 college football schedule begins with MACtion on Tuesday and Wednesday, features two games on Thursday and four on Friday before another loaded slate on Saturday. A pair of SEC matchup are in the spotlight that day as No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 14 LSU and No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 16 Ole Miss both have big College Football Playoff implications. The Crimson Tide are 3-point favorites in the Week 11 college football odds via SportsLine consensus, while the Bulldogs are -2.5 in their respective matchups. 

    Other Week 11 college football lines of note include No. 5 Texas (-21.5) vs. Florida, No. 21 Colorado vs. Texas Tech (+3.5) and No. 8 Indiana (-14) vs. Michigan. Before locking in any Week 11 college football picks on those games or others, be sure to see the college football betting guide from legendary Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall. 

    For years Vegas-based Marshall was synonymous with The Gold Sheet, the famed sports betting newsletter. With a background in play-by-play work and sports information while in college, Marshall joined TGS in 1981 when hired by the legendary Mort Olshan and served as executive editor for many years. 

    An in-demand guest on numerous sports talk radio and TV shows across the country, Bruce’s vast array of editorial work has been featured in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the New York Post and many other outlets. He has won various handicapping titles and also is working on several book projects. Bruce also enters the Week 11 college football schedule on a 27-14 roll (+1144) on his official SportsLine college football spread betting picks. 

    Now, using his Tech Corner technique that evaluates all the trends and the latest college football odds, Marshall has turned his attention to college football betting for Week 11 and revealed picks for each matchup. Head to SportsLine to see every pick.

    Top college football predictions for Week 11

    One of the top college football picks Marshall is recommending for Week 11: He is backing No. 8 Indiana (-14) to cover at home against Michigan in the 3:30 p.m. ET Big Ten on CBS/Paramount+ game. He also likes the Over 48.5 in that matchup.

    Michigan has historically dominated this series with Indiana recording just one win (in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign) since 1987. However Marshall calls that “a different era” for these programs, both of which have new coaches this season. Indiana has surged into the top 10 under Curt Cignetti, while Michigan has struggled this season under Sherrone Moore.

    Indiana has covered in eight straight games, often with room to spare. Michigan, meanwhile, is just 2-7 against the spread this season. Indiana has also seen seven of its last eight games go over the total, while five of Michigan’s last six have cleared the total. See which other picks to make here. 

    How to make college football picks for Week 11

    Marshall has evaluated every other matchup and he’s found an alarming 26-11 trend you need to know this week. Get betting analysis for each matchup at SportsLine.

    So what college football picks can you make with confidence, and what alarming trend do you need to know about? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams to back, all from the legendary Vegas expert who has won multiple handicapping titles, and find out.

    Week 11 college football odds 

    See full Week 11 college football picks, odds and predictions here.

    Tuesday, Nov. 5

    Bowling Green at Central Michigan (+12.5, 49)

    Miami (OH) at Ball State (+12, 49.5)

    Wednesday, Nov. 6

    Ohio at Kent State (+18.5, 52)

    Northern Illinois at Western Michigan (+1.5, 52.5)

    Thursday, Nov. 7

    Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina (-1, 62.5)

    Florida Atlantic at East Carolina (-7.5, 57.5)

    Friday, Nov. 8

    California at Wake Forest (+7, 54)

    Rice at Memphis (-9.5, 52.5)

    Iowa at UCLA (+6.5, 44.5)

    New Mexico at San Diego State (-3, 68)

    Saturday, Nov. 9

    Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech (+11, 63.5)

    Florida at Texas (-21.5, 47.5)

    Purdue at Ohio State (-38, 53.5)

    Georgia at Ole Miss (+2.5, 55)

    Michigan at Indiana (-14, 48.5)

    Colorado at Texas Tech (+3.5, 62.5)

    Maryland at Oregon (-25, 57.5)

    Alabama at LSU (+3, 58.5)

    Washington at Penn State (-13, 46)

    BYU at Utah (+4, 41.5)



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  • ‘MNF’ odds, pick, best bet

    ‘MNF’ odds, pick, best bet

    Get ready for an ugly, grind-it-out non-conference matchup between the Giants and Steelers on Monday night. 

    The Giants have lost consecutive matchups against Cincinnati and Philadelphia, plummeting from potential NFC East contender status to the bottom of the division in just two weeks. 

    Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is fresh off a dominant 22-point win against the Jets in Russell Wilson’s first game as the Steelers starting quarterback, propelling them into a tie with the Ravens atop the AFC North. 

    Here’s a preview of the game with our best bets against the spread and on the total. 

    Giants vs. Steelers spread 

    After a 25-point home loss against the Eagles, the Giants enter Monday night’s game as six-point road underdogs.

    They have covered the spread in three of their seven games, while the Steelers have a 5-2 against the spread (ATS) record. 

    The Giants’ eye-opening road win against the Seahawks three weeks ago without star rookie wideout Malik Nabers put the NFL on notice that there might be a dark horse in the NFC East. 

    However, the G-Men have since dropped back-to-back home games to Philadelphia and Cincinnati, scoring a combined 10 points against teams that have had their fair share of defensive struggles this season. 


    Daniel Jones has a tough task playing in Pittsburgh on Monday night.
    Daniel Jones has a tough task playing in Pittsburgh on Monday night. AP

    Now the Giants head to Pittsburgh to face a defense that ranks second in opponent points per game, eighth in opponent yards per game and has Pro Football Focus’ third-highest-graded defense through the season’s first seven weeks. 

    Don’t expect the switch to be flipped this week against the Steelers. 

    Daniel Jones threw for just 99 yards against an Eagles secondary that was among the worst football units last season. While Philly’s defensive backfield has made some sizable strides, Jones’ struggles last week were inexplicable. 

    Still, Brian Daboll believes Jones gives his team “the best chance to win.” Unfortunately for the quarterback, he faces one of the NFL’s most formidable front lines on Monday night, one that leads the NFL in sacks and is third in QB hits. 

    I’ll ride with the Steelers at home despite the Giants’ strange aptitude for showing up in road games. 

    Recommendation: Steelers -6.5 (-104, FanDuel) 


    Russell Wilson played well in the second half against the Jets.
    Russell Wilson played well in the second half against the Jets. AP

    Giants vs. Steelers point total 

    The point total for this matchup is the lowest in the NFL in Week 8 and the only one in the 30s. It opened at 42.5 but some books now have it listed as low as 36. 

    The Giants have only played in one game that eclipsed the point total line this season. The Steelers are also below .500 to the Over with a 3-4 mark. 

    Somehow the total for this matchup still feels too high. 

    The Giants’ offense has reverted to form, as it has failed to gain any traction on the ground or in the air. Since Jones entered the NFL in 2019, no team has scored fewer points than the Giants, who have their lowest scoring average (14.1 ppg) this year of the six he has played. 

    Then there’s the Giants defense, which transforms from Clark Kent to Superman when playing on the road, particularly in the red zone. It is tied for second in the NFL in opponent red-zone scoring percentage (touchdowns only) on the road but last in that category at MetLife Stadium. 

    Betting on the NFL?

    Pittsburgh should have some offensive success with Wilson, who had his moments in his first game back from injury (6.2 yards per play, seventh-best in Week 7), but the Giants’ elite pass rush (first in sack percentage) could wreak havoc at times. 

    And the Justin Field-less Steelers don’t have a strong enough running game to exploit a Giants defense that Saquon Barkley and the Eagles just decimated. 

    Recommendation: Under 36.5 points (-110, Caesars). 

    Why Trust New York Post Betting

    Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.

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  • 2024 college football Week 9 picks against the spread, odds, lines, trends: Vegas expert reveals predictions

    2024 college football Week 9 picks against the spread, odds, lines, trends: Vegas expert reveals predictions

    The Week 9 college football schedule has already seen nine games unfold and teams such as No. 17 Boise State and No. 19 Pittsburgh have scored important wins. Now there are four ranked matchups set for Saturday with the Week 9 college football odds via SportsLine consensus listing No. 12 Notre Dame as a 14-point favorite against No. 24 Navy. Another surprising top-25 team, No. 25 Vanderbilt, is +17.5 against No. 5 Texas. 

    No. 15 Alabama vs. No. 21 Missouri (+15.5) and No. 8 LSU vs. No. 14 Texas A&M (-1) are SEC matchups that could go a long way in shaping the College Football Playoff picture, while top-ranked Oregon (-21.5) will look to keep rolling against No. 20 Illinois in the 3:30 p.m. ET Big Ten on CBS matchup. 

    Before locking in any Week 9 college football picks on those games or others, be sure to see the college football betting guide from legendary Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall. 

    For years Vegas-based Marshall was synonymous with The Gold Sheet, the famed sports betting newsletter. With a background in play-by-play work and sports information while in college, Marshall joined TGS in 1981 when hired by the legendary Mort Olshan and served as executive editor for many years. 

    An in-demand guest on numerous sports talk radio and TV shows across the country, Bruce’s vast array of editorial work has been featured in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the New York Post and many other outlets. He has won various handicapping titles and also is working on several book projects. Bruce also enters the Week 8 college football weekend schedule on an 24-10 roll (+1281) on his official SportsLine college football spread betting picks. 

    Now, using his Tech Corner technique that evaluates all the trends and the latest college football odds, Marshall has turned his attention to college football betting for Week 9 and revealed picks for each matchup. Head to SportsLine to see every pick.

    Top college football predictions for Week 9

    One of the top college football picks Marshall is recommending for Week 9: He’s backing Michigan State (+4) to cover on the road against Michigan in a 7:30 p.m. ET on matchup on Saturday. The Wolverines have won four of the past six in this rivalry and had tremendous spread numbers the past couple years. 

    However, Marshall says this is a matchup where you can throw out trends from past season. Michigan is struggling badly with a 1-6 ATS record, while Michigan State has covered in three of its past four, including an outright upset as a 6.5-point underdog against Iowa last week. 

    “The Spartans are 4-1 as underdogs for head coaching Jonathan Smith, a role he played well previously at Oregon State (17-10-1 between 2019-23),” Marshall told SportsLine. See which other picks to make here. 

    How to make college football picks for Week 9

    Marshall has evaluated every other matchup and he’s found an alarming 27-4 trend you need to know this week. Get betting analysis for each matchup at SportsLine.

    So what college football picks can you make with confidence, and what alarming trend do you need to know about? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams to back, all from the legendary Vegas expert who has won multiple handicapping titles, and find out.

    Week 9 college football odds 

    See full Week 9 college football picks, odds and predictions here.

    Saturday, Oct. 26

    Notre Dame vs. Navy (+14, 50.5)

    Oklahoma at Ole Miss (-19.5, 49.5)

    Washington at Indiana (-5.5, 54)

    Nebraska at Ohio State (-25.5, 48.5)

    BYU at UCF (-2.5, 53.5)

    Missouri at Alabama (-15.5, 51)

    Illinois at Oregon (-21.5, 54.5)

    Texas at Vanderbilt (+17.5, 51)

    LSU at Texas A&M (-1, 55)

    Michigan State at Michigan (-4, 39)

    Penn State at Wisconsin (+6.5, 47.5)

    Cincinnati at Colorado (-6.5, 57)



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  • College football odds, picks, bets Week 9

    College football odds, picks, bets Week 9

    Notre Dame and Navy have played 94 times since 1927.

    This rivalry has always had juice, but the stakes haven’t been this high since 1978 when the undefeated Midshipmen traveled to Cleveland to take on the 15th-ranked Fighting Irish.

    This time, both programs have a legitimate chance to play their way into the College Football Playoff, but it will have to start with a win at MetLife Stadium on Saturday.

    This isn’t your granddaddy’s Navy offense.

    The Mids average more than 44 points per game and have cracked the code when it comes to generating big plays.

    Through just six games, Navy already has burned defenses for plays of 40 yards or more on 13 occasions.

    There are two explanations for this offensive glow-up. The first is quarterback play.

    Blake Horvath is piloting the offense to perfection, ranking third in QBR while leading the nation in yards per pass attempt (12.3).

    The second element that has contributed to Navy’s explosiveness has been the addition of Drew Cronic to the coaching staff.

    The former head coach at Mercer has revamped Navy’s offense by introducing Wing T elements to the traditional triple option.

    The result has been players running wild in the second and third levels of opposing defenses.

    If you cherry-pick portions of their film, Navy’s passing attack has all the modern bells and whistles that we’ve come to expect from a Chip Kelly or Steve Sarkisian offense.

    You’ll find a heavy dose of shotgun looks, run-pass options, screen passes to nearly every position on the field, naked bootlegs and a complex route tree for runners out of the backfield.

    Cronic’s philosophy centers around the idea of pre-snap motion, misdirection and sleight of hand in order to force defenses to defend the width of the field.

    The end result is that defenses are playing slower. Paralysis by analysis, as coaches like to say.

    Notre Dame is going to have to cram for this football test and without a bye week to do it, Navy likely will continue to spark big plays through the air and on the ground.


    Navy running back Eli Heidenreich runs for a long gain in the second half of an NCAA college football game against Air Force Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024, at Air Force Academy, Colo.
    Navy running back Eli Heidenreich runs for a long gain in the second half of an NCAA college football game against Air Force Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024, at Air Force Academy, Colo. AP

    If you dig into Notre Dame’s defensive profile, you will find the Irish struggle with a few run concepts that reside squarely in Navy’s wheelhouse.

    The Mids excel when running powers and counters and Notre Dame is barely inside the top 100 in defending them.

    And if the Irish commit more to stopping the run by loading the box, that’s when Eli Heidenreich and Navy’s other pass-catchers will do damage.

    Before last week, Heidenreich had broken a long play of at least 39 yards in every game this season.

    The former high school wide receiver has become a Swiss Army Knife for the Midshipmen, and he should be able to pop at least one against the Irish on Saturday afternoon.

    The reason for this spread being as generous as it is starts and ends with scheduling.

    Navy feasted on teams such as Bucknell, Temple and UAB in the early going before acing its first-semester exam against Memphis, a 56-44 shootout win.

    Betting on College Football?

    The perception is that Notre Dame’s path has been much more difficult having played Texas A&M and Louisville.

    But in reality, these two teams have a nearly identical schedule strength — Notre Dame 70th, Navy 71st, per College Football Network.

    Northern Illinois shrunk the game down and used its rushing attack to upset Notre Dame in South Bend.

    Despite its explosiveness, Navy still runs it 77.54 percent of the time, the second-highest run rate in America.

    The stage is set and the formula is there for Navy to torpedo Notre Dame’s season.

    Recommendation: Navy +13.5 (+105, BetMGM)

    Why Trust New York Post Betting

    Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.

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