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  • Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket for conference championship week

    Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket for conference championship week

    The fifth College Football Playoff rankings of 2024 will be announced tonight, Tuesday, Nov. 30, and things are bound to change after seven ranked teams lost last weekend. Before the CFP committee unveils the next rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will land, along with the bracket.

    Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee’s official protocols here.

    2024 College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Fifth Top 25 projections

    These predictions are as of Sunday, Dec. 1. 

    1. Oregon (12-0) LW: 1 — Oregon will be ranked No. 1 as long as it’s undefeated.
    2. Texas (11-1) LW: 3 — Texas won its long-awaited rivalry game with Texas A&M, adding a quality win to its resume as it moves up to No. 2
    3. Penn State (11-1) LW: 4 — Penn State moves up in this week’s rankings after Ohio State’s loss.
    4. Notre Dame (11-1) LW: 5 — Notre Dame escaped USC and will likely host a game in the first round of the playoff, potentially rising to the No. 5 seed when it’s all said and done.
    5. Georgia (10-2) LW: 7 — A win is a win in the committee’s eyes this week. Georgia moves up thanks to winning its close game in a week where Miami and Ohio State lost.
    6. Tennessee (10-2) LW: 8 — Tennessee assured its spot in the playoff with a win over Vanderbilt. The Volunteers will be in a great position to host a playoff game.
    7. Ohio State (10-2) LW: 2 — Ohio State will still be in the playoffs even with its second loss because of wins over Penn State and Indiana. Those wins keep the Buckeyes over a pair of one-loss teams.
    8. SMU (11-1) LW: 9 — SMU defeated Cal to enter the ACC championship with just one loss.
    9. Indiana (11-1) LW: 10 — Indiana stays behind SMU after a win over a one-win Purdue team.
    10. Boise State (11-1) LW: 11 — Boise State handled business against Oregon State and will rise into the top 10.
    11. South Carolina (9-3) LW: 15 — The order of the rankings from No. 12-14 will be the cause for plenty of debate. South Carolina beat a Clemson team ranked No. 12 last week, while other three-loss SEC teams beat unranked opponents. However, teams like Alabama and Ole Miss defeated the Gamecocks head-to-head. True as that may be, the committee already showed that head-to-head isn’t the end-all factor when the Tide, Rebels, Bulldogs and Vols were all in the top 10 a few weeks ago. The Clemson win pushes the Gamecocks into the playoffs.
    12. Alabama (9-3) LW: 13 — Alabama will be the first team out this week at No. 12 since it’s ranked higher than any Big 12 team. The Tide will need one team to falter to help it make the playoff.
    13. Ole Miss (9-3) LW: 14 — Ole Miss will be ranked 14th by the committee and require conference championship game blowouts to make the playoff.
    14. Miami (FL) (10-2) LW: 6 — Miami lost its second game of the season to Syracuse. The Hurricanes have fewer losses than teams ranked above it, but Miami hasn’t defeated a currently ranked team. The loss to Syracuse knocked Miami from the ACC championship game and the playoff picture.
    15. Arizona State (10-2) LW: 16 — Arizona State dominated Arizona with a spot in the Big 12 championship game on the line. The Sun Devils are just one more win away from a playoff spot.
    16. Iowa State (10-2) LW: 18 — Iowa State won Farmeggedon, holding off Kansas State. The Cyclones can clinch a playoff spot with a win next week.
    17. BYU (10-2) LW: 19 — BYU finishes the regular season with 10 wins but is out of the playoff picture since it won’t play in the Big 12 title game.
    18. Clemson (9-3) LW: 12 — Clemson’s hopes of making the playoff as an at-large team died with a loss to South Carolina, but its hopes of making the playoff revived when Miami’s loss sent it to the ACC Championship Game. Nonetheless, expect Clemson to land outside the top 15 this week.
    19. Missouri (9-3) LW: 21 — Missouri rallied past Arkansas and will move inside the top 20 this week.
    20. UNLV (10-2) LW: 22 — UNLV took down Nevada and will enter the top 20 ahead of a CFP elimination game in the Mountain West title game.
    21. Syracuse (9-3) LW: NR — At 9-3 with a win over a then-top-10 team, Syracuse will enter the rankings this week.
    22. Illinois (9-3) LW: 23 — Illinois defeated Northwestern and will remain ranked this week.
    23. Colorado (9-3) LW: 25 — Colorado moves up after a 52-0 win on Black Friday. Unfortunately, the Buffaloes saw their playoff hopes disappear last week in a loss.
    24. Texas A&M (8-4) LW: 20 — Texas A&M lost to Texas, but the committee will keep the Aggies ranked since Texas is a top-two team.
    25. Army (10-1) LW: NR — I have no idea who the committee will rank in the final spot, but I’ll go with Army since the Black Knights are 10-1 and bounced back from their first loss with a win.

    CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

    What the bracket could look like

    bracket

    First Teams Out: No. 12 Alabama, No. 13 Ole Miss, No. 14 Miami

    Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

    How far does Ohio State fall?

    Ohio State lost to an unranked Michigan, but it still has wins over two top-10 teams. The playoff committee already had a pair of two-loss teams ranked above one-loss teams last week. Could a third two-loss team in Ohio State continue the trend?

    LAST WEEK’S RECAP: Michigan stuns No. 2 Ohio State, Georgia wins in 8OT, more from Rivalry Week

    Where are the three-loss SEC teams in comparison to Miami?

    Miami is the other top-10 team to suffer its second loss this week. However, the Hurricanes don’t have nearly the quality wins of a team like Ohio State. Miami likely will fall below a one-loss Boise State team putting it out of the top 10. The next teams outside of the top 10 are all three-loss teams based on last week’s rankings. When comparing resumes, how much the committee will weigh a third loss will determine where Miami lands compared to South Carolina, Alabama and Ole Miss.

    Resume comparison
    Team Rec. LW Rank LW Result Current Ranked Wins Losses
    Miami (FL) 10-2 No. 6 L Syracuse None
    Best win: Louisville
    or Duke    		 Georgia Tech (28-23)
    Syracuse (42-38)
    Alabama 9-3 No. 13 W Auburn Georgia (41-34)
    South Carolina (27-25)
    Missouri (34-0)    		 Vanderbilt (40-35)
    Tennessee (24-17)
    Oklahoma (24-3)
    Ole Miss 9-3 No. 14 W Mississippi State Georgia (28-10)
    South Carolina (27-3)    		 Kentucky (20-17)
    LSU (29-26)
    Florida (24-17)
    South Carolina 9-3 No. 15 W No. 12 Clemson Texas A&M (44-20)
    Missouri (34-30)
    Clemson (17-14)    		 LSU (36-33)
    Ole Miss (27-3)
    Alabama (27-25)

    Is a win over Clemson enough to move South Carolina past teams it lost to?

    South Carolina lost to LSU in a controversial 36-33 finish, lost to Ole Miss in a 27-3 rout and lost to Alabama 27-25 in a close one. That’s two losses to two teams ranked right in front of the Gamecocks. However, South Carolina was the only team to beat a ranked team this week. Will that be enough to make the Gamecocks the last team in?

    Michigan stuns No. 2 Ohio State, Syracuse upsets No. 6 Miami, more from Rivalry Week

    Recapping Rivalry Week’s college football action that saw No. 7 Georgia escape Georgia Tech in 8OT, Michigan upset No. 2 Ohio State and Syracuse remove No. 6 Miami from the ACC title game.

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    2024-25 FCS National Championship Game: Date, time, TV channel, history

    Here’s everything you need to know about the 2024-25 FCS Championship Game.

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    Lafayette-Lehigh football: Memorable moments, all-time history

    It’s been more than 135 years since the first Lafayette vs. Lehigh football game. Here are key moments from their rivalry and an all-time history of the series.

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  • Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket for Week 12

    Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket for Week 12

    The second College Football Playoff Rankings of 2024 are almost here and we enter these rankings with an already pre-established idea of how the CFP committee views each team. Before the CFP committee unveils the next rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will land. 

    The second of six CFP top 25 reveals happens on Tuesday, Nov. 5 (here’s the full schedule). Ahead of the announcement, here’s a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee’s official protocols here.

    2024 College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Week 12 Top 25 projections

    These predictions are as of Sunday, November 10. 

    1. Oregon (10-0) LW: 1 — As long as Oregon keeps winning, the Ducks will stay at the top.
    2. Ohio State (8-1) LW: 2 — A shutout win should put to bed any argument over who should be No. 2 in the country.
    3. Texas (8-1) LW: 5 — Expect Texas to move into the top three after Georgia and Miami lost.
    4. Tennessee (8-1) LW: 7 — Tennessee’s win over Alabama got more juice after the Tide beat LSU. That small boost will move Tennessee into the top four for the committee.
    5. Penn State (8-1) LW: 6 — Penn State won its whiteout game against Washington and will move into the top five.
    6. Indiana (10-0) LW: 8 — Is a win over Michigan enough to move Indiana into the top five? I don’t think so, especially not in front of a Tennessee team with a win over Alabama. 
    7. BYU (9-0) LW: 9 — BYU won a nail-biter over Utah in the Holy War, but I don’t think a close win will cause the committee to drop the Cougars below a two-loss team.
    8. Alabama (7-2) LW: 11 — Alabama should be the No. 8 team in the country after dominating LSU in Death Valley. Until someone ahead of the Tide loses, I don’t think the CFP committee can overlook their two losses.
    9. Georgia (7-2) LW: 3 — Georgia was ranked above Miami last week, and it’ll stay above the Hurricanes after losing to a ranked opponent. However, the Bulldogs will fall below Alabama because of head-to-head.
    10. Miami (9-1) LW: 4 — Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech on the road is better than Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois at home. Luckily for the Hurricanes, Notre Dame is a floor in these rankings.
    11. Ole Miss (7-2) LW: 16 — Ole Miss will be the last at-large team in the bracket this week after handily beating Georgia. South Carolina should be ranked too, giving the Rebels another ranked win on its resume.
    12. Notre Dame (8-1) LW: 10 — Notre Dame falls out of the playoff field as Alabama and Ole Miss move in front of it. With only one ranked opponent remaining on the schedule, the committee could send a message about Notre Dame’s stability in the bracket this week.
    13. Boise State (8-1) LW: 12 — Boise State will stay in the playoffs as the highest projected conference champion remaining, but it won’t be one of the 12 best teams after a close win over Nevada.
    14. SMU (8-1) LW: 13 — SMU won’t move in front of any teams after a bye.
    15. Texas A&M (7-2) LW: 14 — Texas A&M won’t move in front of any teams after a bye.
    16. Kansas State (7-2) LW: 19 — Kansas State had a bye and will move up after three teams ranked ahead of it lost.
    17. Colorado (7-2) LW: 20 — Colorado controls its destiny and could make the CFP as a conference champion. However, its path to becoming a top-12 team has a roadblock with a head-to-head loss to Kansas State. 
    18. Washington State (8-1) LW: 21 — Washington State has a long road ahead to become one of the top-12 teams, but it should move up three spots this week.
    19. Louisville (6-3) LW: 22 — Louisville stays above Clemson after the Cardinals had a bye.
    20. Clemson (6-2) LW: 23 — Last week’s ranking told us that the committee won’t put Clemson in front of Louisville after a head-to-head defeat unless the Tigers get a ranked win.
    21. Missouri (6-2) LW: 24 — Missouri’s win over Oklahoma doesn’t hold as much weight as it was thought in the preseason. The Tigers likely have to win an SEC title to make the playoffs based on the committee’s first rankings.
    22. Army (9-0) LW: 25 — Army’s win over North Texas wasn’t groundbreaking so the Black Knights won’t enter the top 20 yet.
    23. LSU (6-3) LW: 15 — Sometimes it’s about how you lose just as much as it’s about who you lose to. For LSU both will drop the Tigers to the bottom of the top 25. A blowout loss at home is never a good look.
    24. South Carolina (6-3) LW: NR — South Carolina beat a good Vanderbilt team a week after beating a ranked Texas A&M team. The Gamecocks will be ranked by the committee this week after feeling snubbed last week.
    25. Arizona State (7-2) LW: NR — I think the committee will give Arizona State the final spot in this week’s rankings. The Sun Devils should get the spot over fellow Big 12 school Iowa State, even though the Cyclones were ranked last week. Arizona State has won two straight while Iowa State has lost two straight. An argument could be made to rank Tulane, but I don’t see the committee ranking two teams from the American in their second rankings.

    CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

    What the bracket could look like

    bracket

    First Teams Out: No. 12 Notre Dame, No. 14 SMU, No. 15 Texas A&M 

    LOOKING AHEAD: 2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites

    Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

    How far do Georgia and Miami Fall?

    Georgia and Miami will drop from the top three this week. That we know. What we don’t know is where the schools will land. Both schools should be in the top-12, but the teams the committee places in front of the Bulldogs and Hurricanes will show how much room for error both programs have down the stretch.

    LAST WEEK’S RECAP: Ole Miss upsets No. 3 Georgia, Georgia Tech stuns No. 4 Miami in Week 11 

    How much will Alabama and Ole Miss move up?

    Alabama and Ole Miss both picked up statement wins over ranked teams. The Tide were already in the projected playoff bracket last week, but how high could they be this week? Meanwhile, Ole Miss wasn’t one of the first two teams out, but I think a win over the No. 3 team in the country could launch the Rebels into the bracket.

    Is it an SEC title or bust for LSU?

    LSU might’ve gotten blown out by Alabama at home for its third loss, but it was only the second SEC conference play loss for the Tigers. LSU can still make the playoff by winning the SEC title game, but will they need it? It depends on how low the Tigers are in the second CFP rankings. Anything outside the top 20 likely makes it SEC title game or bust.

    2024 Alabama football schedule: Dates, times, TV channels, scores

    Check out the 2024 Alabama Crimson Tide’s football schedule. This will be updated all season long for game times, TV channels and scores.

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    2024 Notre Dame football schedule: Dates, times, TV channels, scores

    Take a look at Notre Dame’s complete 2024 football schedule, featuring dates, times, TV information and results. This will be updated all season long.

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    College football scores: CFP Top 25 rankings, schedule, results for Week 11

    Find college football scores for top 25 games in Week 11 here. Rankings are from the latest College Football Playoff rankings.

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