Outside of a 18-15 Week 3 loss to a 10-2 BYU team, SMU (11-2) ran through their 60th ranked ACC schedule to go undefeated in conference play during their maiden Power Four campaign. A 28-27 victory over @Duke (9-3) carried the lowest win expectancy of SMU’s wins at 74%, which showcases the dominant nature of the Mustangs’ success. Their offense ranks 4th nationally in SP+ with their lethal pass attack placing 11th nationally in EPA/dropback and 9th in yards per successful dropback (17.7). The SMU rushing attack is clearly the weakest unit on the team, ranking 73rd in rush success rate and 118th in YAC (2.15). It couldn’t be any different on the defensive side, as their defensive front is holding opponents to 7.4 yards per successful rush (3rd in FBS) and an outstanding .75 yards before contact allowed (9th). The SMU secondary is also a sound unit that ranks 10th in pass success rate and 16th in QBR allowed.
The Nittany Lions (11-2) cruised through the first half with their closest victory being a thrilling Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC with PSU recording an 86%-win expectancy. Outside of that game, each of their other 10 victories carried near perfect 94%+ win expectations with Penn State demonstrating a comprehensive mastery of their B10 regular season schedule, aside from OSU of course. OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks 2nd in success rate, 5th in EPA/play and 2nd in marginal efficiency. There are flaws though as PSU’s offense lacks big play ability, ranking a dismal 92nd in yards per successful play and 63rd in yards per successful rush. The Nittany Lions Defense has been elite once again, ranking 7th in SP+ with their topflight secondary allowing just 5.2 yards per dropback (14th). Projected Top 10 2025 NFL Draft selection Abdul Carter leads a pass rush that ranks 25th overall with a 7.8% sack rate and 9th with a 42.3% pressure rate.
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Game Details and How to watch the 2024 College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State
· Date: Saturday, December 21, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Beaver Stadium
· City: University Park, PA
· TV/Streaming: TNT/Max
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Game odds for SMU at Penn State
- Moneyline: Penn State (-350), SMU (+270)
- Spread: Penn State -8.5
- Over/Under: 52.5 points
The spread opened at Penn State -8 but has since inched up to -9 in some spots and could steam up to the key number of -10 by kickoff. PSU’s moneyline dropped at -298 and is up to a high of -350, while SMU has improved from +240 to +270. The game total opened at 52.5 but that has since spiked to a high of 54.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“SMU’s defense has allowed 24+ points in 7 games this year and have scored 28+ in all but one contest. Both teams were involved in competitive Conference Championship games that easily cleared their game total Overs. SMU showed that they can play from behind against a strong defense like Clemson, which is the likely scenario against Penn State’s extremely efficient offense that ranks 2nd in success rate. I think these two offenses execute well enough to clear the 52.5 game total, and think it steadily continues to increase as the game draws closer.”
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Quarterback matchup for College Football Playoff – SMU at Penn State
- Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar has been the unquestioned starter for the last two seasons after spending a one-year apprenticeship to Sean Clifford. Allar ranks 12th nationally with an 86th percentile PFF overall grade and has been exceptional navigating the pocket, rating 8th in FBS with a 71st% under-pressure grade. As a team, PSU ranks 2nd in passing success rate and is achieving first down yardage on 61.8% of their completions (6th). With Allar entering his third, and potentially final, season in Happy Valley, this may be Penn State’s best chance in the near future to secure a National Championship.
- SMU: Heading into fall camp conventional wisdom had former four-star QB Preston Stone reprising his 2023 role as SMU’s starting quarterback. However, QB Kevin Jennings wowed the coaching staff in fall camp to the point that HC Rhett Lashlee committed to giving him reps in the season opener. That arrangement lasted three weeks until Jennings finally secured the starting job in their 18-15 loss to BYU. He went onto complete 66.1% of his throws for 3,072 yards, a 22-to-8 ratio and 8.8 yards per attempt which ranks 7th best among Power Four signal callers. He boasts advanced ability to escape the rush, as is evidenced by a 12.2% pressure-to-sack rate, and an 85.3 PFF passing grade.
SMU at Penn State: Betting trends & recent stats
- Star Penn State TE Tyler Warren ranks 1st among Power Four tight ends with 112 targets. Penn State Tight Ends have produced 19 receptions of 20+ yards this season, 2nd-most among FBS programs.
- RB Nicholas Singleton has rushed for 10 or more yards on 19.8% of 131 carries this season, 7th-best among qualified Power Four running backs. SMU’s defense has allowed 10+ yards on just 7.7% of carries this season, best among ACC defenses.
- Penn State is 1-6 (.143) against the spread when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, worst among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .432)
- Penn State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 364 attempts this season, tied for 20th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.1% of attempts this season, best among ACC defenses.
- Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 195 of 807 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2023 season, best among Power Conference programs.
- Penn State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 3 of 679 attempts since the 2023 season, best in FBS.
- SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of 72% in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams.
- WR Roderick Daniels has committed 6 fumbles this season, most among Power Conference skill players
- SMU has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 34 of 443 carries this season, 5th-best in FBS.
- SMU’s offense has thrown for 3,471 passing yards in 13 games this season, 26th-best among FBS offenses. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 178.5 passing yards per game this season, 16th-best among FBS defenses.
- SMU has allowed 106.5 yards from scrimmage per game to running backs this season, 4th-best among Power Conference Teams.
- QB Kevin Jennings has completed 70% of passes (62 completions/89 net pass attempts) on 3rd down this season, 3rd-best among FBS Quarterbacks.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
“Oregon, Georgia and Texas are the favorites to win the College Football Playoff. We will be cheering for the chalk as all three of those teams are good results for the sportsbook.” – Cameron Drucker, Senior Trader, BetMGM
Line movement (Open to Now)
- Oregon +900 to +350
- Texas +1000 to +350
- Georgia +500 to +375
- Ohio State +700 to +475
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 12.6%
- Texas 10.7%
- Georgia 9.6%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 15.9%
- Alabama 13.1%
- Georgia 13.0%
Biggest Liabilities
- Alabama
- Colorado
- Ohio State
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