Overall on the week just four defenses finished with double-digit point totals. They also just happened to be four defenses that we had inside our top eight, which feels good. However, it does mean that it was not a great week for streamers and another week that seems to suggest that just rolling out a strong defense, even in a bad matchup, is preferable to continuing to try and play the wire week in and week out.
Despite all of that, we had a pretty good week with seven of the top 10 defenses predicted correctly. A few of those slipped in with just seven or eight points on the week, but that was enough in a down week like this. We did miss on the Washington Commanders, who weren’t able to get anything going against the Eagles. We also missed as the Dolphins didn’t deliver in a streaming spot against the Raiders, and the Browns put up no fight against the Saints. It seems clear that I need to stop counting out the Saints’ offense despite having no healthy wide receivers. Taysom Hill is all they need.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 11: 7-3
SEASON-LONG: 61-49 (55.5%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 12?
Yes, there are six defenses in tier one, but I truly believe there’s a solid case for any of these teams to be the number one play on the week.
The Vikings have yet another week in Tier One. They are averaging 9.4 fantasy points over the last six weeks and get a strong matchup against a Bears offense that has been floundering and is down three starting offensive linemen. Over the last two months, the Vikings are 2nd in turnover rate, 3rd in opponent’s scoring rate, and 15th in PFF’s pass rush productivity grade. Their secondary has been giving up big plays and they rank dead last in forced incompletion rate, which gives us slightly pause but the Bears passing attack hasn’t been able to get anything going down the field so I’m not too worried for this week. I think Brian Flores’ scheme is going to eat up Caleb Williams, and so I’m happy to roll the Vikings out this week.
The Texans are in another good spot against a poor Titans offense that has given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses on the season. Yes, they have played a little bit better with Will Levis under center the last two games, but they did allow 11 fantasy points to the Vikings this past weekend, so it’s still a matchup we like to take advantage of. Over the last two months, the Texans are 5th in turnover rate, 5th in opponent’s scoring rate, and are averaging 8.6 fantasy points per game. Will Anderson is still not back which has taken a bit of teeth out of the pass rush, but this Titans offensive line has struggled this season, so I’m content to fire up the Texans yet again.
The Steelers were one of just four defenses this past week that put up a double-digit score, which is all the more shocking since they did it against a Ravens offense that had given up the fewest points per game to opposing defenses. I had thought of the Steelers as a safe floor play in all weeks, but them doing that to the Ravens has to make you consider their upside every week. Over the last two months, the Steelers rank 4th in turnover rate, 6th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, and 8th in opponent’s scoring rate. Jameis Winston has given the Browns a little bit more juice, but they’re still prone to turnovers and allowing fantasy value for opposing defenses, which makes the Steelers a solid play here on Thursday night.
The Broncos finished last week as the 2nd highest-scoring defense in fantasy and that was against a Falcons offense that had allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses coming into the game. The Broncos are 6th in pass rush productivity rate, 7th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 6th in explosive play rate allowed. They now get to face a Raiders offense that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses since Davante Adams was “injured” and then traded away. There’s a strong argument the Broncos could be ranked higher but they’ve averaged just 7.5 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, so it gives me a little pause when I think of rankings them over the three defenses ahead of them.
The Commanders let me down last week, but the Eagles are a far tougher opponent than this iteration of the Cowboys that just allowed 19 fantasy points to the Texans on Monday Night Football. Over the last two months, the Commanders are 4th in pass rush productivity grade, 6th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 13th in turnover rate. They have a tendency to give up some big plays because their secondary has some cracks, but they might get Marshon Lattimore onto the field this week, and the Cowboys with either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance under center don’t seem likely to threaten the Commanders much down the field.
You’re not going to be shocked that the Lions are up here since they were my top defense last week as well. Over the last two months, the Lions are 1st in turnover rate, 4th in opponent’s scoring rate, 12th in pass rush productivity grade, and 13th in forced incompletion rate. The Colts are not a smash-spot opponent with Anthony Richardson under center. He has struggled to complete passes in the short and intermediate areas and that has led to a couple of good weeks for fantasy defenses against him, but teams are averaging six six fantasy points per game when Richardson starts under center. That’s not usually a total we want to target, but the Lions have averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, so it’s hard to even think about taking them out of your lineup.
The Bears have been showing a few chinks in the armor over the last six weeks, averaging only 5.4 fantasy points per game. That’s obviously not ideal for our purposes but over the last two months, they do rank 4th in pass rush productivity rate, 8th in turnover rate, and 11th in forced incompletion rate, which we like to see. On the other hand, rank 15th in explosive play rate allowed and 17th in opponent’s scoring rate, which is likely why the fantasy points haven’t translated. That does give me a little bit of concern because this Vikings offense can certainly hit on big plays down the field, but the Vikings have also had some sack and turnover issues, so I can see the Bears sneaking into the top 10.
Both the Eagles and Rams have been tremendous fantasy defenses of late. The Eagles have averaged 10.8 fantasy points over the last six weeks and the Rams have put up 12.2 fantasy points per game. They both rank outside the top 15 in pass rush productivity rate but they’re both in the top ten in forced incompletion rate and turnover rate. The Eagles have allowed fewer points, and their offense has been harder to accumulate points again of late, so I give them the slight edge here, but I can see both as top 10 options this week.
The Chiefs defense gave up 30 points to the Bills on Sunday and are only averaging 4.8 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. We know they’re a solid real-life defense, but their production hasn’t consistently translated over to fantasy points. They do rank 13th in pass rush productivity rate, but the Panthers have a solid offensive line and are actually 6th in the NFL in sack rate allowed. The Chiefs are 9th in opponent’s scoring rate, so we should feel good about them keeping the Panthers out of the end zone; I’m just not sure we can count on them for tons of turnovers or sacks even though they’ll be coming into this game fired up after taking their first loss last weekend.
The Bucs are in a great spot against a Giants offense that will be led by Tommy DeVito; however, the Bucs are also my 23rd-ranked defense over the last two months, so we’re going to have to decide just how much we’re ready to trust them. The Giants will still have Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr., and this is a Bucs defense that ranks 10th in pass rush productivity rate, 14th in turnover rate, and 26th in opponent’s scoring rate over the last six weeks. That pass rush grade is what stands out to me because the Giants’ offensive line has had issues since Andrew Thomas went down with an injury. I think that’s where the Bucs can do some damage in Week 12, and I don’t see the Giants really being an offense to take advantage of Tampa’s leaky secondary.
The 49ers have consistently failed to live up to expectations this year. They’ve battled multiple injuries, but even with Christian McCaffrey back, the 49ers lost this weekend and barely survived against the Bucs two weeks ago. Nick Bosa is now apparently dealing with multiple oblique injuries, and the defense has averaged just 5.6 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. The Packers matchup is an average one, but the 49ers feel like a slightly above-average defense right now, so I don’t feel great about rolling them out there in shallower formats.
The Cardinals have been solid of late, averaging 7.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. That’s not an elite number, but it’s solid enough when you consider that the Seahawks give up the 7th-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses on the season, so that isn’t just limited to a recent stint without DK Metcalf. Seattle is 18th in turnover rate and 22nd in sack rate allowed, so this is an offense you can take advantage of for fantasy success. The Cardinals are 16th in pass rush productivity rate and 12th in turnover rate over the last two months, so they’re a slightly above-average defense facing an offense that has allowed fantasy success and that could make the Cardinals a sleeper pick for Week 12.
The Chargers aren’t in a good spot against the Ravens, but we just saw the Steelers deliver against the Ravens this past weekend. Over the last two months, the Chargers are 1st in forced incompletion rate, 2nd in opponent’s scoring rate, and 9th in pass rush productivity rate so this could be a low-scoring game that allows the Chargers to put up 5-7 fantasy points and make them a safe floor play in deeper formats.
Nothing here really tempts me. The Browns and Ravens are in bad spots against offenses that don’t give up a lot of fantasy points to opposing defenses, the Packers have been slipping and are in a tough spot against the 49ers, and the Patriots have been a much better offense with Drake Maye under center so I can’t get behind playing the Dolphins after they didn’t deliver against the Raiders.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
